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The report applies a 'nexus toolkit' to analyze the interactions between agricultural transformation, energy transition, and natural resource use in Rwanda, specifically within the Akagera Basin. Using policy coherence mapping and scenario modelling (Reference, Pessimistic, and Optimistic) up to 2050, the study finds that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on water and biomass. Key findings indicate that ambitious national plans for irrigation and hydropower may be physically impossible to meet due to water scarcity, and that the transition to peat for electricity will increase GHG emissions despite reductions in cooking-fuel emissions. At the district level, the report identifies critical needs for improved water management, off-grid energy solutions, and a shift away from urban charcoal demand to combat deforestation.

The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

The report examines the biogas industry in the Western Cape, South Africa, which it describes as being in a "nascent or infant state". Through five case studies and two financial scenarios, it concludes that biogas project viability is highly site-specific and depends heavily on economies of scale, high on-site energy requirements, and high waste management costs. The analysis suggests that small-scale commercial installations (<50 kWe) are generally not financially viable, while medium-scale installations (>50 kWe; <1MW) at abattoirs can be viable, particularly when waste disposal costs are high due to legislative changes regarding landfill classifications.

The CSIR's analysis of South Africa's Draft IRP 2016 concludes that a 'Least Cost' scenario—prioritising solar PV, wind, and flexible power—is significantly cheaper, creates more jobs, and emits less CO2 than the government's Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios. The report argues that the Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar and wind without techno-economic justification, which artificially inflates costs and pushes the system toward new coal or nuclear investment. By 2050, the CSIR finds that a renewable energy share of over 70% is cost-optimal. Technical assessments on system inertia and transmission infrastructure indicate that the costs of maintaining stability in a high-renewable system are low, representing less than 1% of total power generation costs.

The document examines the trade-offs between low-carbon and high-carbon energy pathways in Kenya, highlighting the financial, regulatory, and social challenges of transitioning to renewable energy. It emphasizes the need for a balanced energy portfolio, the integration of decentralized power solutions, and the critical role of stakeholder engagement and transparent benefit-sharing to overcome public resistance to renewable energy projects.

The report finds that Uganda faces a critical biomass deficit by 2020, which climate change will likely exacerbate. While the government's current electricity expansion plan can cover potential hydropower losses from reduced precipitation, it requires significant investment. Adaptation focuses on reducing biomass dependence through fuel switching and energy efficiency.

The report argues that a high-ambition climate agreement aiming to limit global warming to 2°C is essential for achieving the SDGs by 2030, particularly those related to poverty, inequality, and energy. Using Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), the study compares a high-ambition scenario (RCP4.5/SSP1) with a low-ambition scenario (RCP8.5/SSP3). Findings indicate that under a low-ambition agreement, poverty levels in 2030 could be 80–140% higher in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa compared to the high-ambition scenario. Case studies in Dominica, Jamaica, Pakistan, and Uganda highlight that while the specific sensitivity of SDGs varies by country, poverty and energy goals are consistently most at risk under low-ambition climate policies. The report emphasizes a reciprocal relationship: ambitious SDGs are necessary to implement a high-ambition climate deal, and a high-ambition deal is necessary to realize the SDGs.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The document outlines a collaborative project using the SEI nexus toolkit—integrating the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) systems—to analyze trade-offs and synergies in Ethiopia's upper Blue Nile region. Initial findings indicate that while increased irrigation can reduce water for hydropower and the environment, optimized dam operations can meet both energy and environmental goals. Additionally, the study highlights a link between energy transitions and agriculture, noting that shifting away from traditional biomass could improve soil productivity.

The document examines the critical water crisis in El Alto and La Paz, Bolivia, where rapid population growth and climate-driven glacier retreat are reducing water supplies. Using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, the Stockholm Environment Institute identifies that current systems are highly vulnerable, with the El Alto system predicted to fail almost permanently between 2011 and 2030. The briefing recommends a combination of new reservoir construction (such as Khotia Khota and Kaluyo), significant reductions in urban and agricultural water leaks, and improved industrial wastewater recycling to build resilience. It emphasizes the need for watershed-based coordination and community participation in planning to manage the projected population increase to two million people in El Alto by 2050.

The document argues that eradicating malaria in Africa by 2025 would prevent 12 million deaths and increase the continent's economic output by nearly US$ 430 billion by 2050. Using the International Futures (IFs) tool, the authors compare a 'Base Case' of continued current efforts against a 'Malaria Eradication' scenario. They find that while eradication would lead to a slight population increase, this would be tempered by declining fertility rates resulting from lower infant mortality. The brief highlights that the economic gains, driven by increased productivity and reduced disability, would far outweigh the high costs of eradication campaigns and vaccine development.

The document argues that while a 'Green Revolution' focused solely on increasing crop yields and land cultivation could make Africa a net food exporter and boost GDP, it would not significantly reduce undernutrition because most production would be exported. To improve human development, the authors propose a 'Green Revolution for Development' that couples production increases with policies to stimulate domestic food demand and access, alongside improvements in water and sanitation.

The research paper examines how shifts in consumer behaviour in high-income countries to reduce GHG emissions—such as buying fewer goods and shifting to services—can disproportionately harm the GDP of lower-income countries and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) due to their reliance on trade. Using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model based on the WRAP scenario, the authors find that while such shifts benefit the domestic economy of the consuming country, they can lead to significant GDP losses in poor exporting nations. The paper suggests alternative strategies to align climate mitigation with development goals, such as preferentially sourcing products from low-GHG, low-income regions or improving production efficiency in developing countries.

The report estimates that the currently proposed EU ETS Phase III structure would raise between €150-190bn under a 20% emissions reduction target, increasing to €200-310bn if the target is raised to 30%. Germany is projected to receive the highest proportion of these revenues. The authors argue that these funds should be prioritised for climate-related expenditures, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstrations, low-carbon RD&D, and energy efficiency improvements for vulnerable groups. The report also explores an alternative scenario where the cement and steel sectors are fully auctioned with border levelling; this would increase revenues by €18-22bn from cement and €14-17bn from steel under a 20% target. While some suggest using these funds for national debt reduction, the authors warn that this could damage the legitimacy of the EU ETS, though they acknowledge it as a potential short-term transitional option for severely indebted Member States.

The report finds that Wales' 2003 ecological footprint was 5.16 global hectares (gha) per person, which is lower than Scotland, England, or any English region. However, the footprint grew by an average of 1.5% per year between 1990 and 2003, mirroring the growth in Gross Value Added (GVA). The analysis identifies housing, food, and personal travel as the three primary contributors, accounting for 63% of the total footprint. The report models scenarios to 2020, suggesting that while current policies may stabilise the footprint, a combined package of expanded retrofitting, food waste reduction, and sustainable travel initiatives could achieve a 6.6% overall reduction in the total footprint by 2020.

The report finds that the average Welsh resident's Ecological Footprint (EF) of 5.25 gha/cap is significantly higher than the global biocapacity of 1.8 gha/cap, implying that nearly three Earths would be needed if everyone lived like a Welsh resident. Food and drink consumption is the largest single component of the EF, while energy consumption is the primary driver of CO2 emissions. The study highlights a discrepancy between 'producer responsibility' (territorial emissions) and 'consumer responsibility' (emissions from consumption), noting that Wales carries an environmental burden for consumption occurring outside its borders. Sectoral analyses suggest that while organic farming and energy efficiency schemes offer some reductions, the most significant potential for lowering the EF lies in dietary changes, a shift toward renewable energy (particularly wind), and aggressive demand management in transport.

The report argues that a transition to a renewable-based energy system is technically and economically feasible. The FFES demonstrates that through aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and the adoption of solar, wind, and biomass energy, global CO2 emissions can be reduced to zero by 2100. The analysis emphasizes that such a transition could be achieved at costs similar to or lower than 'business-as-usual' scenarios, provided there is strong policy leadership and international cooperation to overcome market barriers and address economic inequities between the North and South.

The document argues that the US is facing a potential transition from relative to absolute demographic decline as net migration trends toward negative values. This shift, combined with projected negative 'natural' population growth by 2030, is expected to accelerate the decline of US national power (measured via DIME factors) and create a geopolitical vacuum in Africa. The author suggests that China is already positioning itself to fill this void through more collaborative engagement with African partners, while the EU faces a similar risk of power decline unless it treats migration as an opportunity to offset its own aging population.

The document assesses the Western Cape's education system, highlighting systemic inequalities, high grade repetition, and the impact of inward migration. It proposes the 'Educating Cape' scenario, which combines expanded Early Childhood Development (ECD) and improved pedagogical teacher training to boost primary and secondary survival rates, ultimately aiming to increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.

The CHAPOSA project investigated charcoal production systems around Lusaka, Dar es Salaam, and Maputo between 1989 and 1998. Findings indicate a significant reduction in closed forest cover in all three areas, with the most severe depletion around Maputo. Charcoal serves as a critical income source for rural poor and a stable, affordable energy source for urban poor, creating a socio-economic dependency that complicates regulation. The report argues that current fiscal and licensing systems are inadequately enforced, treating forests as open-access resources. To mitigate deforestation, the authors recommend a coordinated approach: enforcing licensing to increase prices and fund forest management, while simultaneously providing rural income alternatives (e.g., improved agriculture) and urban energy substitutes (e.g., expanded electricity access).