CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA

The document argues that while a 'Green Revolution' focused solely on increasing crop yields and land cultivation could make Africa a net food exporter and boost GDP, it would not significantly reduce undernutrition because most production would be exported. To improve human development, the authors propose a 'Green Revolution for Development' that couples production increases with policies to stimulate domestic food demand and access, alongside improvements in water and sanitation.

• Africa possesses significant untapped agricultural potential, with only 20 per cent of its available arable land currently under cultivation, and an average maximum potential crop yield of nearly 8,5 tons per hectare, the highest of any global region.
• The continent shifted from being a net exporter of agricultural produce to a net importer in 1981, with agricultural imports rising from US$ 13,8 billion in 1981 to US$ 114 billion by 2010.
• A 'Green Revolution' scenario focused on aggressive public and private investment in yields and land expansion could make Africa a net exporter of crops within 10 years and increase the overall economy by over US$ 3 trillion by 2050 compared to the Base Case.
• Increasing production alone is insufficient for human development; the 'African Green Revolution' scenario would reduce the percentage of undernourished children by less than 1 per cent by 2050 compared to the Base Case, as production would primarily feed high-end consumption abroad.
• The 'African Green Revolution for Development' scenario, which combines production increases with policies to increase domestic food demand, would reduce the stunting rate from 16 per cent in the Base Case to less than 10 per cent and result in 11 million fewer undernourished children by 2050.
• The document highlights that caloric increases cannot be fully translated into human development without concurrent improvements in water and sanitation, as diarrheal diseases diminish the health benefits of increased food consumption.

APA

Moyer, J. D., & Firnhaber, E. (2012). CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf

Chicago

Moyer, Jonathan D, and Eric Firnhaber. CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan D |last2=Firnhaber |first2=Eric |title=CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 August 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moyer2012cultivating, author = {Moyer, Jonathan D and Firnhaber, Eric}, title = {{CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }