CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA

This policy brief explores the potential for a 'Green Revolution' in Africa, using the International Futures (IFs) model to compare scenarios of agricultural intensification. The authors argue that while aggressive policy interventions could make Africa a net food exporter and significantly boost GDP, such production increases must be coupled with social policies to ensure food access for the poor and improvements in water and sanitation to realize human development gains.

• Africa possesses significant untapped agricultural potential, with the highest average maximum potential crop yield of any global region at nearly 8.5 tons per hectare. Additionally, only 20 per cent of its available arable land is currently under cultivation, a much lower rate than in Asia (over 77 per cent), Europe (over 45 per cent), and North America (over 46 per cent).
• Historically, Africa shifted from being a net exporter of agricultural produce to a net importer in 1981. By 2010, agricultural imports had risen to US$ 114 billion, representing nearly 13 per cent of GDP, with the continent importing 85 per cent of its wheat and 45 per cent of its rice.
• The 'African Green Revolution' scenario, characterized by aggressive public and private interventions to increase yields and cropland, could more than triple production from just over 500 million tons to over 1,800 million tons by 2050. This would make Africa a net exporter of crops within 10 years and increase the overall economy by over US$ 3 trillion compared to the Base Case by 2050.
• Increasing agricultural production alone is insufficient for human development because most of the surplus would be exported to rich countries. In the 'African Green Revolution' scenario, the percentage of undernourished children by 2050 would decrease by less than 1 per cent compared to the Base Case, as benefits would accrue to high-end consumption abroad, such as increasing meat consumption in the USA by over 4 million tons.
• The 'African Green Revolution for Development' scenario, which combines production increases with policies to stimulate domestic demand and food access, yields superior human development outcomes. Compared to the Base Case, this scenario would result in 11 million fewer undernourished children by 2050, reduce the stunting rate from 16 per cent to less than 10 per cent, and prevent 650 million years of life lost to disease.
• The document highlights that caloric increases cannot be fully translated into human development without concurrent improvements in water and sanitation, as diarrheal diseases significantly offset the health benefits of increased food consumption.

APA

Moyer, J. D., & Firnhaber, E. (2012). CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf

Chicago

Moyer, Jonathan D, and Eric Firnhaber. CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan D |last2=Firnhaber |first2=Eric |title=CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 August 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moyer2012cultivating, author = {Moyer, Jonathan D and Firnhaber, Eric}, title = {{CULTIVATING THE FUTURE: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL AND IMPACT OF A GREEN REVOLUTION IN AFRICA}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAFNo4.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }