Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016

The CSIR's analysis of South Africa's Draft IRP 2016 concludes that a 'Least Cost' scenario—prioritising solar PV, wind, and flexible power—is significantly cheaper, creates more jobs, and emits less CO2 than the government's Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios. The report argues that the Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar and wind without techno-economic justification, which artificially inflates costs and pushes the system toward new coal or nuclear investment. By 2050, the CSIR finds that a renewable energy share of over 70% is cost-optimal. Technical assessments on system inertia and transmission infrastructure indicate that the costs of maintaining stability in a high-renewable system are low, representing less than 1% of total power generation costs.

• A 'Least Cost' electricity mix for South Africa by 2050 is dominated by solar PV, wind, and flexible power (such as gas, CSP, hydro, and biogas), with a renewable energy share of over 70% being cost-optimal.
• The CSIR's Least Cost scenario is significantly more efficient than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case by 2050, costing R70 billion per year less, emitting half the CO2, consuming 60% less water, and providing 10% more jobs.
• The Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar PV (1,000 MW) and wind (1,800 MW) that the CSIR claims lack 'techno-economic justification' and result in the model selecting more expensive technologies like coal or nuclear.
• The 'Decarbonised' scenario, which targets a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, is estimated to be R50 billion per year more costly than the Least Cost scenario but uses 30% less water and provides 5% more jobs.
• Technical analysis of system frequency stability shows that the cost of implementing rotating stabiliser devices (flywheels) to manage low-inertia systems is very low, remaining below 1% of the total cost of power generation by 2050 across all scenarios.
• High-level estimates for transmission network infrastructure indicate that the Least Cost scenario is R20-30 billion per year cheaper than the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios.
• The CSIR's medium-term outlook to 2030 suggests that the least-cost technology choices (wind, solar PV, peaking, and gas) are insensitive to demand forecast assumptions, which only affect the scale of build-out.

APA

Wright, J. G., Bischof-Niemz, T., Calitz, J., Mushwana, C., van Heerden, R., & Senatla, M. (2017). Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Wright, Jarrad G., Tobias Bischof-Niemz, Joanne Calitz, Crescent Mushwana, Robbie van Heerden, and Mamahloko Senatla. Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2017. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wright |first1=Jarrad G. |last2=Bischof-Niemz |first2=Tobias |last3=Calitz |first3=Joanne |last4=Mushwana |first4=Crescent |last5=van Heerden |first5=Robbie |last6=Senatla |first6=Mamahloko |title=Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016 |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=3 April 2017 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wright2017formal, author = {Wright, Jarrad G. and Bischof-Niemz, Tobias and Calitz, Joanne and Mushwana, Crescent and van Heerden, Robbie and Senatla, Mamahloko}, title = {{Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2017}, month = apr, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/170403-CSIR-comments-on-the-IRP.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }