TOWARDS A FOSSIL FREE ENERGY FUTURE

The report argues that a transition to a renewable-based energy system is technically and economically feasible. The FFES demonstrates that through aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and the adoption of solar, wind, and biomass energy, global CO2 emissions can be reduced to zero by 2100. The analysis emphasizes that such a transition could be achieved at costs similar to or lower than 'business-as-usual' scenarios, provided there is strong policy leadership and international cooperation to overcome market barriers and address economic inequities between the North and South.

• The Fossil Free Energy Scenario (FFES) demonstrates that it is possible to eliminate fossil fuel combustion by 2100 and nuclear power by 2010 to avoid climate disaster.
• Under the FFES, annual global CO2 emissions are projected to peak around 2000 and decline to 48% and 29% of 1988 levels by 2030 and 2075, respectively, reaching zero net emissions by 2100.
• The transition to a fossil-free future relies on a shift in primary energy supply: by 2100, solar and wind are projected to provide 79% of primary energy, with biomass providing 18%.
• The FFES assumes a significant reduction in the economic gap between the North and South, narrowing the GDP ratio from 14:1 in 1988 to approximately 2:1 by 2100.
• Implementation of the FFES could be achieved at costs similar to or lower than 'business-as-usual' energy paths, with some efficiency measures providing net economic benefits.
• The scenario projects that global delivered energy needs in 2030 could be met at 1988 levels (approximately 230 EJ) due to massive efficiency improvements, before rising to 448 EJ by 2100 as developing regions industrialize.
• Land use for biomass energy is a significant constraint; by 2100, biomass plantations could require between 290 and 720 million hectares, or 4-8% of global arable, pasture, forest, and woodland area.
• Climate modelling using the STUGE model indicates that the FFES would limit global mean temperature increase to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and sea-level rise to 20 centimetres.
• The report identifies 'technological leapfrogging' as a key opportunity for developing countries to bypass inefficient legacy technologies and install state-of-the-art energy efficient systems.
• The analysis suggests that delaying the implementation of the FFES policies results in a temperature increase of approximately 0.4°C for every ten-year delay.

APA

Lazarus, M., Greber, L., Hall, J., Bartels, C., Bernow, S., Hansen, E., Raskin, P., & Von Hippel, D. (1993). TOWARDS A FOSSIL FREE ENERGY FUTURE. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://leap.sei.org/documents/greenpeacereport.pdf

Chicago

Lazarus, Michael, Lisa Greber, Jeff Hall, Carlton Bartels, Steve Bernow, Evan Hansen, Paul Raskin, and David Von Hippel. TOWARDS A FOSSIL FREE ENERGY FUTURE. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1993. https://leap.sei.org/documents/greenpeacereport.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lazarus |first1=Michael |last2=Greber |first2=Lisa |last3=Hall |first3=Jeff |last4=Bartels |first4=Carlton |last5=Bernow |first5=Steve |last6=Hansen |first6=Evan |last7=Raskin |first7=Paul |last8=Von Hippel |first8=David |title=TOWARDS A FOSSIL FREE ENERGY FUTURE |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 1993 |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/greenpeacereport.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lazarus1993towards, author = {Lazarus, Michael and Greber, Lisa and Hall, Jeff and Bartels, Carlton and Bernow, Steve and Hansen, Evan and Raskin, Paul and Von Hippel, David}, title = {{TOWARDS A FOSSIL FREE ENERGY FUTURE}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1993}, month = apr, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/greenpeacereport.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }