Made in Africa Manufacturing and the fourth industrial revolution

The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

• Africa is experiencing a trend of deindustrialisation, where structural transformation has moved labour from low-productivity informal agriculture to low-productivity urban-based retail services, which the report describes as 'growth reducing'.
• Manufacturing is identified as the most productive sector and is uniquely capable of transforming productivity and driving rapid economic growth, whereas growth in services in Africa has contributed to slow or no growth in aggregate per capita income.
• The contribution of manufacturing to GDP across African countries has either stagnated or contracted since the mid-1980s, leaving the continent significantly under-industrialised compared to other income-groupings globally.
• The fourth industrial revolution, involving technologies like AI, robotics, and additive manufacturing, may reduce the importance of low labour costs in locating industry, potentially offering Africa a way to accelerate economic transformation.
• ICT has significant potential to bridge Africa's educational deficit by providing remote access to high-quality materials, and can facilitate leapfrogging in health and infrastructure through off-grid renewable energy solutions.
• African governments have historically failed to industrialise due to a lack of committed leadership, failure to implement concerted public investment packages, and a lack of high-quality, locally embedded special economic zones (SEZs).
• A 'Made in Africa' scenario modelling active industrialisation interventions suggests that by 2040, the African economy could be 42% larger than under the 'Current Path', with manufacturing's share of GDP increasing from roughly 17% to 24%.
• Under the 'Made in Africa' scenario, the number of people living in absolute poverty by 2040 would be approximately 200 million fewer than the 'Current Path' forecast, though many countries would still miss the SDG 2030 target of eliminating extreme poverty.
• The report argues that industrialisation requires a shift away from unfettered free trade toward deliberate policies that protect infant domestic industries and promote regional economic integration to create larger markets.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Made in Africa Manufacturing and the fourth industrial revolution. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-8.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Made in Africa Manufacturing and the fourth industrial revolution. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-8.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Made in Africa Manufacturing and the fourth industrial revolution |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-8.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2018made, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Made in Africa Manufacturing and the fourth industrial revolution}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-8.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }