The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 sustainable development goals

The report argues that a high-ambition climate agreement aiming to limit global warming to 2°C is essential for achieving the SDGs by 2030, particularly those related to poverty, inequality, and energy. Using Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM), the study compares a high-ambition scenario (RCP4.5/SSP1) with a low-ambition scenario (RCP8.5/SSP3). Findings indicate that under a low-ambition agreement, poverty levels in 2030 could be 80–140% higher in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa compared to the high-ambition scenario. Case studies in Dominica, Jamaica, Pakistan, and Uganda highlight that while the specific sensitivity of SDGs varies by country, poverty and energy goals are consistently most at risk under low-ambition climate policies. The report emphasizes a reciprocal relationship: ambitious SDGs are necessary to implement a high-ambition climate deal, and a high-ambition deal is necessary to realize the SDGs.

• A high-ambition climate agreement that limits global warming to 2°C by 2100 is critical for the successful achievement of the SDGs by 2030, as it provides the necessary policy framework, international cooperation, and financial resources for mitigation and adaptation.
• There is a reciprocal relationship between the two agendas: strong SDG targets and financing commitments are required to underpin the national policies needed for a high-ambition climate agreement, while the climate agreement itself is necessary to achieve the SDGs.
• At a global and regional level, a high-ambition agreement is most vital for achieving SDGs related to poverty (SDG 1), inequality (SDG 10), climate change (SDG 13), and global partnerships (SDG 17).
• Low-ambition climate agreements are projected to result in significantly higher poverty levels by 2030, specifically 80–140% higher for Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and 25% higher for Latin America and the Caribbean compared to high-ambition scenarios.
• A high-ambition agreement is expected to increase the global share of non-fossil energy from 13% to approximately 21% by 2030, whereas a low-ambition agreement would result in virtually no increase in this share.
• In Uganda, a high-ambition scenario is projected to reduce poverty from 15 million in 2015 to 12 million by 2030, while a low-ambition scenario could see poverty increase to 19 million by 2030.
• For the Caribbean case studies of Dominica and Jamaica, the poverty SDG is the most sensitive to the level of climate ambition, with high-ambition scenarios significantly reducing poverty headcounts compared to low-ambition ones.
• Climate change disproportionately affects women in developing countries, who are 14 times more likely to die during disasters than men; a high-ambition agreement could mitigate this by increasing resources for women's empowerment and education.

APA

Ansuategi, A., Greño, P., Houlden, V., Markandya, A., Onofri, L., Picot, H., Tsarouchi, G.-M., & Walmsley, N. (2015). The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 sustainable development goals. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Impact-of-climate-on-SDGs-technical-report-CDKN.pdf

Chicago

Ansuategi, Alberto, Patxi Greño, Valerie Houlden, Anil Markandya, Laura Onofri, Helen Picot, Georgia-Marina Tsarouchi, and Nigel Walmsley. The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 sustainable development goals. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2015. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Impact-of-climate-on-SDGs-technical-report-CDKN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ansuategi |first1=Alberto |last2=Greño |first2=Patxi |last3=Houlden |first3=Valerie |last4=Markandya |first4=Anil |last5=Onofri |first5=Laura |last6=Picot |first6=Helen |last7=Tsarouchi |first7=Georgia-Marina |last8=Walmsley |first8=Nigel |title=The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 sustainable development goals |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=May 2015 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Impact-of-climate-on-SDGs-technical-report-CDKN.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ansuategi2015impact, author = {Ansuategi, Alberto and Greño, Patxi and Houlden, Valerie and Markandya, Anil and Onofri, Laura and Picot, Helen and Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina and Walmsley, Nigel}, title = {{The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 sustainable development goals}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2015}, month = may, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Impact-of-climate-on-SDGs-technical-report-CDKN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }