MALARIA NO MORE: EXPECTATIONS FOR ERADICATION

The document argues that eradicating malaria in Africa by 2025 would prevent 12 million deaths and increase the continent's economic output by nearly US$ 430 billion by 2050. Using the International Futures (IFs) tool, the authors compare a 'Base Case' of continued current efforts against a 'Malaria Eradication' scenario. They find that while eradication would lead to a slight population increase, this would be tempered by declining fertility rates resulting from lower infant mortality. The brief highlights that the economic gains, driven by increased productivity and reduced disability, would far outweigh the high costs of eradication campaigns and vaccine development.

• If malaria were fully eradicated in Africa by 2025 and remained eradicated through 2050, approximately 12 million deaths would be avoided. The most significant reductions in mortality would occur in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with each country averting about 2.5 million deaths, followed by Tanzania with over 600,000 deaths averted.
• The economic impact of malaria eradication in Africa would be a cumulative increase in overall output of over US$ 430 billion by 2050. This growth would result in an absolute rise in per capita income of more than US$ 30 per person by 2050 compared to the Base Case scenario.
• Eradication would significantly improve quality of life by reducing the disability rate, preventing more than 50 million years of life lived with malaria-related morbidity between 2015 and 2050.
• The population of Africa in 2050 would be only about 0.03 per cent larger under the eradication scenario than in the Base Case. This limited growth is attributed to the fact that declines in infant mortality typically trigger declines in fertility rates as parents reach their desired number of children faster.
• While the cost of eradication would be high—with the WHO estimating US$ 5.1 billion annually until 2020 just for control targets and up to US$ 1 billion for vaccine development—the authors argue these costs are inexpensive relative to the projected economic benefits.
• The document identifies specific biological and environmental drivers of malaria in Africa, noting that the most effective transmitter, Anopheles gambiae, is found only in Africa and has developed insecticide resistance, while the most dangerous species, Plasmodium falciparum, has developed resistance to some antimalarial drugs.

APA

Moyer, J. D., & Emde, G. (2012). MALARIA NO MORE: EXPECTATIONS FOR ERADICATION. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF5.pdf

Chicago

Moyer, Jonathan D., and Graham Emde. MALARIA NO MORE: EXPECTATIONS FOR ERADICATION. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF5.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moyer |first1=Jonathan D. |last2=Emde |first2=Graham |title=MALARIA NO MORE: EXPECTATIONS FOR ERADICATION |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=30 November 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF5.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moyer2012malaria, author = {Moyer, Jonathan D. and Emde, Graham}, title = {{MALARIA NO MORE: EXPECTATIONS FOR ERADICATION}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }