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The policy brief examines the 2021 UN Security Council agreement to keep the Bab al-Hawa border crossing open for humanitarian aid to Syria. It argues that Russia's support for the resolution, despite its preference for aid to flow through Damascus, was driven by a need to prevent the economic collapse of the al-Assad regime. The author highlights the role of a bilateral US-Russia deal and the diplomatic efforts of Ireland and Norway in securing the compromise. The brief also notes that while external stakeholders find the current fragile state of Syria acceptable, the lack of funding for reconstruction and regional instabilities—including COVID-19 and shifts in Iranian and US engagement—threaten long-term stability.

The January 6 Capitol attacks damaged the United States' reputation as a democratic leader, prompting various nations to reconsider their reliance on U.S. leadership. While the UK sees an opportunity for a values-based partnership under Joe Biden, Brazil's President Bolsonaro has aligned himself with Trumpism, potentially hindering cooperation on climate change. South Africa views the events as a cautionary tale regarding democratic fragility and a reinforcement of U.S. racial inequality. Turkey expects a return to predictable diplomacy but notes the need for humility in U.S. human rights advocacy. India and other Quad members may pursue more autonomous regional initiatives to counter authoritarianism, specifically from China, due to perceived U.S. domestic dysfunction.

The document explores how the climate crisis and energy transition are reshaping global power dynamics, particularly for the European Union. It argues that traditional geopolitics—focused on state rivalry and resource control—must be replaced by a model of 'ecological security' and 'steward statehood' rooted in human rights and social justice. Key analyses include the EU's 'open strategic autonomy,' the risks of corporate-led hydrogen projects, China's Belt and Road Initiative's energy dimensions, and the necessity of a global fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. It emphasizes that the green transition must be a 'just transition' to avoid social backlash and that Europe should lead by example in decarbonization and multilateral cooperation.

The document analyzes the deadlock in Syria's reconstruction, focusing on the impact of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the competing motivations of the US, Russia, and Iran. While the Assad regime has largely won the military conflict, it faces economic collapse and immense reconstruction costs. The US uses sanctions and a limited military presence in eastern Syria as leverage to force a UN-led political solution, while Russia and Iran seek to secure their strategic footprints in the Middle East. The authors suggest that US sanctions may act as a deterrent to reconstruction, potentially making the US a 'spoiler' in the process, while China's growing influence in the region may further dilute the efficacy of unilateral US pressure.

The report argues that achieving Zero Hunger requires a geopolitical understanding of food security, as unilateralism and competition over resources, trade disruptions, and armed conflict create barriers to eradicating hunger. It highlights that climate change further complicates these dynamics by reshaping both the physical environment and political calculations, necessitating integrated policy analysis.

The report analyzes Russia's strategic return to Africa, driven by Western sanctions and falling oil prices. It focuses on Zimbabwe and Mozambique, highlighting a pattern of elite-directed cooperation centered on extractive industries, arms trade, and political support. While Russia's economic footprint is significantly smaller than China's, it leverages an 'anti-West narrative' and a high tolerance for corruption to secure access to natural resources and political loyalty, often utilizing proxy organizations for election monitoring and paramilitary groups for security.

The document analyzes the drivers of instability in the Great Lakes region, emphasizing that while the DRC's governance failures are often blamed, the political repression and economic interests of Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi are equally significant. It highlights the role of illegal mineral extraction and the export of internal political conflicts into the eastern DRC. The author suggests that the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi provides an opportunity for a positive shift in regional dynamics, provided there is a fundamental reframing of the conflict narrative and a shift in international diplomatic approaches. The paper evaluates existing frameworks like the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) and recommends a high-level mediation process led by the African Union.

The document analyzes the EU's Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) as a political tool to overcome national resistance to decarbonization, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. By 'rescaling' support to subnational NUTS 3 regions, the EU aims to empower local actors and generate bottom-up support for climate goals. However, the author warns that national governments may act as gatekeepers to funding, and that a regional focus may fail to protect the most vulnerable groups if not paired with broader social policies. The brief also argues for integrating just transition into EU foreign policy to support fossil-fuel-producing countries outside the bloc.

The policy brief examines the tension between Africa's need for universal energy access and the competing influences of China's coal-focused Belt and Road Initiative and the EU's green transition strategy. It highlights 'hotspots' of coal development in countries like South Africa and Kenya, noting that social resistance and civil society can halt fossil fuel projects. The author argues that the EU can better compete with China by moving beyond technology transfer to support social innovation, transparency, and mutually respectful business relationships that prioritize local job creation and industrialization over aid.

The document assesses the chronic instability in the Great Lakes region, specifically the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It argues that while governance failures in the DRC are often blamed, the repressive domestic policies and illicit economic interests of Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi are equally significant drivers of conflict. The author suggests that the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi provides an opportunity to shift regional dynamics, provided the international community demands better governance from all regional actors and supports a comprehensive political dialogue rather than purely military solutions.

The briefing analyzes the intersection of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, deteriorating governance, and nuclear-armed geopolitical tensions in South Asia. It argues that these converging risks create non-linear dynamics that could lead to a systemic collapse or 'regime shift,' posing significant spillover risks to the global international system.

Turkey is pursuing a civilian nuclear energy program to diversify its energy sources and meet rapidly growing electricity demand, primarily through the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant developed with Russia under a 'build-own-operate' (BOO) model. While Turkey adheres to international nonproliferation regimes and collaborates with the IAEA, the BOO model creates risks regarding regulatory oversight, information asymmetry, and potential safety compromises to reduce costs. Additionally, Turkey faces significant climate security threats, including drought and sea-level rise, which may impact the operation of its coastal nuclear sites. The program also reflects Turkey's complex strategic balancing between Russia and NATO allies.

The author contends that the European Green Deal should not be treated as a separate environmental policy but as a geopolitical tool. By diversifying its economy and leading in clean technologies, the EU can reduce its vulnerability to pressure from the US and China and decrease its reliance on fossil fuel imports from authoritarian regimes. The text emphasizes that the transition must also address the stability of oil-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa and prevent internal EU divisions between East and West to avoid external interference.

The European Union views the transition to renewable energy as a path toward energy security and industrial power, yet it faces significant strategic hurdles. Internally, the EU lacks a unified vision for its future integrated energy system, leading to risks of redundant spending and a 'multi-speed' transition where Western and Eastern member states have diverging interests. Externally, the shift creates new dependencies on critical materials and intensifies industrial rivalry with the US and China. The author suggests that the EU must move beyond a purely economic approach to a comprehensive industrial and political strategy, potentially supported by the Green Deal and the Just Transition Fund, to ensure long-term stability and competitiveness.

The analysis examines the shift in Germany's relationship with the Visegrad Group from one of normative leadership to pragmatic economic cooperation. While economic ties remain strong, political rifts over democracy, the rule of law, and migration have eroded Berlin's influence. The author argues that Germany's avoidance of these contentious issues to protect geoeconomic interests hampers the EU's collective sovereignty and effectiveness, particularly as Germany prepares for its 2020 EU presidency.

The report analyzes the failure of diplomatic efforts in Syria, including the Geneva and Astana processes, and maps the fragmented nature of the Syrian Sunni opposition. It details how external actors—primarily Russia, Turkey, and Iran—have established spheres of influence and proxy networks that complicate a sustainable political transition. The authors argue that the peace process has been largely detached from the Syrian people, exacerbated by the rise of extremist groups, the Kurdish issue, and a severe economic crisis compounded by COVID-19.

The author argues that while the EU views renewable energy as a path to energy security and industrial strength, it currently lacks a clear objective or blueprint for its future integrated energy system. This absence of a systemic plan creates domestic risks, such as redundant spending and political friction between Western and Eastern member states, and external vulnerabilities in the face of competition from China and the US. The text suggests that the EU must integrate its energy, infrastructure, and industrial policies to secure critical materials and market share, potentially utilizing the European Green Deal and the Just Transition Fund to mitigate internal disparities.

The document examines Russia's return to Africa through the lens of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy, which seeks to establish a multipolar world order and reduce dependence on the West. It details Russia's focus on niche markets—specifically nuclear energy, arms, and extractives—and its use of 'state champions' like Rosatom and Rosneft. The paper highlights Russia's military-security cooperation, including the use of private military companies in the Central African Republic and Libya, and its strategic relationship with South Africa via the BRICS framework. It concludes that while Russia offers an alternative to Western conditionalities, its engagement often prioritizes elite networks and resource extraction over broad development.

The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.

The author argues that Poland and Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas and oil creates significant security vulnerabilities, which Russia exploits for political pressure. While Poland is investing in infrastructure like the Świnoujście LNG terminal and Baltic Pipe to end gas imports by 2022, Ukraine remains more vulnerable due to limited financial and regulatory capacity. The document posits that long-term resilience against 'hybrid war' requires a shift from centralized energy systems to distributed networks based on renewables and improved energy efficiency, particularly in the housing sector.