MOVING TARGETS GEOPOLITICS IN A WARMING WORLD

The document explores how the climate crisis and energy transition are reshaping global power dynamics, particularly for the European Union. It argues that traditional geopolitics—focused on state rivalry and resource control—must be replaced by a model of 'ecological security' and 'steward statehood' rooted in human rights and social justice. Key analyses include the EU's 'open strategic autonomy,' the risks of corporate-led hydrogen projects, China's Belt and Road Initiative's energy dimensions, and the necessity of a global fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. It emphasizes that the green transition must be a 'just transition' to avoid social backlash and that Europe should lead by example in decarbonization and multilateral cooperation.

• The European Union's 'open strategic autonomy' aims to reduce dependencies on other regions, but it risks failure if it overlooks the social dimension, as deteriorating socioeconomic conditions during the green transition could generate public opposition.
• The European Green Deal is presented as a tool for climate leadership by example, but its credibility depends on resolving internal tensions between member states, particularly those heavily dependent on coal like Poland, Germany, and Czechia.
• China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is fundamentally driven by a need for energy security and access to hydrocarbons, with Xinjiang serving as a critical energy hub for imports from Central Asia.
• The proposed transition to a hydrogen economy in Europe may entrench 'colonial and expansionist capitalism' if it relies on extracting resources from the Global South, such as in Chile, without respecting Indigenous rights and local autonomy.
• Climate change is identified as the ultimate security threat, far exceeding the dangers of great power competition between the US, China, and Russia, and could lead to the collapse of agriculture and society if warming reaches 3 to 5 degrees.
• A proposed Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is suggested as a necessary supply-side policy to complement the Paris Agreement, focusing on non-proliferation of new extraction, disarmament of existing infrastructure, and a just transition.
• The 'Anthropocene' requires a shift from classical geopolitics to 'ecological security,' focusing on creating flourishing habitats and transforming industrial activity rather than managing resource rivalry.
• Ukraine's energy transition is complicated by its dependence on Russian gas and coal, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is viewed by Kyiv as a geopolitical threat that removes a guarantee against Russian aggression.
• The EU's role in the global climate governance process is seen as a potential mediator, but it must avoid 'medical nationalism' and exclusionary market dominance in its pursuit of health and energy sovereignty.

APA

Green European Journal (2021). MOVING TARGETS GEOPOLITICS IN A WARMING WORLD. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GEJ22_Moving-Tagets_Geopolitics-in-a-Warming-World.pdf

Chicago

Green European Journal. MOVING TARGETS GEOPOLITICS IN A WARMING WORLD. 2021. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GEJ22_Moving-Tagets_Geopolitics-in-a-Warming-World.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Green European Journal |title=MOVING TARGETS GEOPOLITICS IN A WARMING WORLD |date=2021 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GEJ22_Moving-Tagets_Geopolitics-in-a-Warming-World.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{greeneuropeanjournal2021moving, author = {{Green European Journal}}, title = {{MOVING TARGETS GEOPOLITICS IN A WARMING WORLD}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2021}, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/GEJ22_Moving-Tagets_Geopolitics-in-a-Warming-World.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }