The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction

The document analyzes the deadlock in Syria's reconstruction, focusing on the impact of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the competing motivations of the US, Russia, and Iran. While the Assad regime has largely won the military conflict, it faces economic collapse and immense reconstruction costs. The US uses sanctions and a limited military presence in eastern Syria as leverage to force a UN-led political solution, while Russia and Iran seek to secure their strategic footprints in the Middle East. The authors suggest that US sanctions may act as a deterrent to reconstruction, potentially making the US a 'spoiler' in the process, while China's growing influence in the region may further dilute the efficacy of unilateral US pressure.

• The cost of rebuilding Syria's physical infrastructure is immense, with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia estimating the volume of destruction in physical capital at over $388 billion US dollars, while the actual physical cost of destruction was close to 120 billion dollars.
• The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, signed in December 2019, aims to punish the Assad regime for human rights violations and compel Russia and Iran to end their support for the regime by employing diplomatic and coercive economic means.
• Russia's involvement in Syria is driven by a desire to restore its status as a great power and oppose US-orchestrated regime change, using its military presence to secure long-term assets such as the naval base in Tartous, whose lease was extended through 2066.
• Iran views Syria as a critical component of its 'axis of resistance' against Israel, utilizing the Quds Force of the IRGC to coordinate approximately 30,000 foreign fighters, including 6,000 to 8,000 Hezbollah fighters.
• The US maintains a military presence of 900 troops at al-Tanf in eastern Syria to prevent an ISIS resurgence and deter encroachment by Russia, Iran, or the Syrian government on regional oil fields, which serves as diplomatic leverage.
• There is a risk that the US may become a 'spoiler' in Syria's reconstruction, as Washington may prefer the process to fail to avoid a victory for Russia and Iran, effectively bogging them down in a 'quagmire'.
• China's increasing strategic and economic cooperation with Iran, including a 25-year cooperation agreement and the development of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as an alternative to SWIFT, may reduce the effectiveness of unilateral US sanctions.

APA

Andersson, M. S., & Waage, H. H. (2021). The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fc70a6df-fcb3-4d30-b77e-792a439df81d/Andersson and Waage - The Geopolitics of Syrias Reconstruction PRIO Paper 2021.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Andersson, Magnus Seland, and Hilde Henriksen Waage. The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2021. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fc70a6df-fcb3-4d30-b77e-792a439df81d/Andersson and Waage - The Geopolitics of Syrias Reconstruction PRIO Paper 2021.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Andersson |first1=Magnus Seland |last2=Waage |first2=Hilde Henriksen |title=The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2021 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fc70a6df-fcb3-4d30-b77e-792a439df81d/Andersson and Waage - The Geopolitics of Syrias Reconstruction PRIO Paper 2021.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{andersson2021geopolitics, author = {Andersson, Magnus Seland and Waage, Hilde Henriksen}, title = {{The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/fc70a6df-fcb3-4d30-b77e-792a439df81d/Andersson and Waage - The Geopolitics of Syrias Reconstruction PRIO Paper 2021.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }