Just transition and the geopolitics of decarbonization in the EU

This policy brief examines how the European Union (EU) Green Deal operationalizes the concept of 'just transition' through a territorial approach. It analyzes the use of the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) to engage subnational carbon-intensive regions, aiming to bypass national-level political resistance to carbon neutrality by 2050. The author identifies several risks, including the potential for national governments to block funding, the lack of monitoring for vulnerable groups, and the need for the EU to address the global geopolitical impacts of decarbonization on fossil fuel-producing countries.

• The EU's approach to just transition is 'territorial,' focusing on subnational carbon-intensive regions to generate bottom-up support for decarbonization and reduce resistance from potential 'losers' of the transition, even when national leadership is resistant.
• The Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) institutionalizes the just transition concept by providing financial and technical support. It includes the Just Transition Fund (JTF) for economic diversification, a dedicated scheme under InvestEU, and a public-sector loan facility via the European Investment Bank Group.
• The EU is using 'rescaling'—defining support at the NUTS 3 level (the smallest spatial unit) rather than the NUTS 2 level—to increase the agency of subnational actors. This is intended to pressure national governments, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (such as Poland and Hungary), to increase their climate ambitions.
• There is a risk that national governments may act as 'gatekeepers' and impede the access of lower-level governments in targeted regions to JTF funding, potentially undermining the goal of strengthening subnational capacities.
• The current framework for Territorial Just Transition Plans lacks mechanisms to ensure support reaches the most vulnerable groups. Specifically, the Commission's proposed indicators for assessing plan effectiveness do not monitor impacts on these vulnerable populations.
• The EU's decarbonization efforts may cause instability in fossil fuel-producing countries outside the EU. The author suggests that the EU should integrate just transition into its foreign policy and aid programs, specifically targeting low-income countries and neighbors like Nigeria, Algeria, and Kazakhstan.

APA

Strambo, C. (2020). Just transition and the geopolitics of decarbonization in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mistra-geopolitics-policy-brief-claudia-strambo.pdf

Chicago

Strambo, Claudia. Just transition and the geopolitics of decarbonization in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mistra-geopolitics-policy-brief-claudia-strambo.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Strambo |first1=Claudia |title=Just transition and the geopolitics of decarbonization in the EU |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mistra-geopolitics-policy-brief-claudia-strambo.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{strambo2020just, author = {Strambo, Claudia}, title = {{Just transition and the geopolitics of decarbonization in the EU}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mistra-geopolitics-policy-brief-claudia-strambo.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }