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This report section examines poverty and equality in Algeria, noting significant reductions in income poverty and human development deficits, while highlighting persistent regional disparities and the challenges posed by unemployment and oil price volatility.

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the socio-economic and ecological challenges facing the Horn of Africa—comprising Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—and describes the use of the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to forecast development pathways to 2040.

This introductory section of a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the current socio-economic and humanitarian state of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) and introduces a forecasting project to analyze its development pathways to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform.

This report section analyzes Tunisia's basic infrastructure, focusing on water and sanitation, energy and electricity, and information and communications technology (ICT), as part of a broader study on development pathways to 2040.

This report section analyzes the health landscape of Tunisia, detailing its transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), current health metrics, and projected mortality trends through 2040.

This document is an annex to a special report titled "The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040," published by the Institute for Security Studies. It details the data sources, adjustments, and specific parameters used in the IFs (International Futures) forecasting model to create three development scenarios for Tunisia: "Common interventions," "Going for Growth," and "Leapfrogging," as well as a "Sustainability & Equality" framework.

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Algeria's socio-economic and political challenges leading up to 2040. It highlights a projected modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% between 2020 and 2040, which the authors argue is insufficient to improve livelihoods given the country's dependence on hydrocarbons, high unemployment, and a state-led economic system. The document emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive structural reforms to address governance issues, climate change impacts on agriculture, and regional security threats.

This document outlines the forecasting methodology used in the Chilling Prospects 2022 report to estimate global risk associated with the lack of access to sustainable cooling through 2030. The methodology identifies four risk profiles based on income and electricity access and evaluates three scenarios—Current trends, SDG7.1, and a combined SDG7.1 and SDG1.1 scenario—across 76 countries to determine how electrification and poverty reduction influence vulnerability to heat.

This report analyzes the generation and management of bio-waste (kitchen, canteen, garden, and green waste) and textile waste in Tallinn. It evaluates current collection systems, provides forecasts through 2026, and proposes measures to increase recycling rates to meet EU and national targets.

This report analyses the development trajectories of the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) to 2040 using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. It identifies critical challenges in agriculture, demographics, infrastructure, and governance, while comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against a positive 'Desert Flower' scenario and a dystopian 'Sahelistan' scenario.

This case study analyzes the financing and policy requirements for the Philippines to achieve universal energy access by 2030. It details the current state of electricity and clean cooking access, projecting the necessary capital for mini-grids, stand-alone solar, and improved cookstoves (ICS), while identifying regulatory barriers and affordability gaps.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political and economic instability within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It examines how a decline in global commodity prices, coupled with neo-patrimonial governance and rapid population growth, creates a volatile environment. The authors use the International Futures (IFs) system to forecast trends up to 2040, warning that without significant investments in human capital and democratic reform, the region faces increased risks of instability and violence.

This policy brief, published by the Institute for Security Studies in 2017, analyzes Ethiopia's development trajectory toward 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the document evaluates the impact of various sectoral interventions—specifically in agriculture, education, health, and governance—on poverty, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). It argues that while Ethiopia has seen rapid growth and improvements in basic services since 1991, it still faces significant challenges in agricultural productivity, primary school completion, and domestic revenue mobilization. The brief recommends an 'Integrated Development Push' to accelerate the country's transition to lower-middle-income status.

This research paper examines the rapid pace of urbanisation in Africa, forecasting population trends and identifying the structural challenges that hinder sustainable urban development. It focuses on the emergence of megacities and the disconnect between urban growth and economic structural transformation.

This research paper evaluates Africa's prospects for achieving universal access to safe water, adequate sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) by 2030, as outlined in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors compare a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) against two alternative scenarios: 'Universal Access' (an aggressive push for 97% coverage) and 'Balancing WASH' (a moderate approach based on 2015 baselines). The analysis highlights the massive infrastructure investment required, the potential for significant economic and human development gains, and the risk of spending trade-offs that could undermine health and education goals.

This executive summary by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and HOMER Energy analyzes the economic transition of residential and commercial customers from grid-only electricity to grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems. The report argues that while total grid defection is possible, the more likely scenario is a gradual shift where customers use the grid as a backup, potentially leading to significant revenue loss for utilities and stranded assets for central generation owners unless new regulatory and pricing models are adopted.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model to analyze the projected rise in road traffic fatalities in Africa through 2050. It argues that road safety is a critical development issue, as rapid motorization often outpaces infrastructure and regulatory improvements. The document compares a 'base case' forecast with an 'improved scenario' where African countries stabilize death rates at current continental averages, demonstrating that aggressive road safety interventions could save millions of lives and provide a significant boost to the continent's GDP.

This document contains the Terms of Reference (ToR) for a consultancy project titled "Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa: Strategies for Workforce Development." Commissioned by FSD Africa, Shell Foundation, and Shortlist, the study aims to provide granular data on specific green job roles, skills requirements, and workforce supply-demand mismatches in Africa to support a sustainable and inclusive green transition.

The African Futures website provides forecasts and scenario modeling for African development through 2043, utilizing the International Futures modelling platform to analyze progress toward the AU's Agenda 2063.

This report provides a detailed development forecast for The Gambia up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy transitions, and the potential impacts of interventions in stability, health, education, and trade.