Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The report analyzes multidimensional and income-based poverty across the Horn of Africa, noting that while the region is projected to see a decline in average poverty rates to 12% by 2040, it will fail to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for eradicating extreme poverty. It highlights severe disparities, with South Sudan and Somalia facing extreme poverty driven by conflict and weak governance, while Ethiopia has shown significant progress in poverty reduction despite ongoing regional conflict.

• The Horn of Africa countries are not on a trajectory to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) regarding the eradication of extreme poverty. While the average regional poverty rate was approximately 33.6% (60 million people) in 2019, it is projected to drop to 25% by 2030 and 12% by 2040.
• Multidimensional poverty is extremely high in the region, particularly in South Sudan, where 92% of the population is multidimensionally poor and 74.3% face severe multidimensional poverty. Ethiopia and Somalia also report multidimensional poverty rates exceeding 80%, while Djibouti has the lowest rate at 34.6%.
• Poverty drivers vary by country: in Somalia, they include "weak governance and insecurity, absence of the rule of law, and conflict and political instability"; in Sudan, "rampant government corruption and unemployment" are primary causes; and in South Sudan, conflict and a reliance on oil over agriculture hinder inclusive growth.
• South Sudan's government prioritizes military spending over social services, with security payrolls accounting for 58% of total government expenditure and military spending rising from 6% of GDP in 2011 to nearly 21% in 2018.
• The Horn of Africa generally has lower average income inequality than other low-income African countries, with a 2019 Gini index average of 0.36 (36%) compared to 41.8% for other low-income African nations. Sudan and Ethiopia have the lowest levels of inequality in the region.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }