Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes poverty and income inequality in the Horn of Africa, forecasting trends through 2040. It highlights significant disparities in multidimensional and monetary poverty across the region, the impact of conflict and governance on economic stability, and the role of income inequality in poverty reduction.

• Multidimensional poverty is widespread in the Horn of Africa, with South Sudan experiencing the highest rates; approximately 92% of its population is multidimensionally poor, and 74.3% are in severe multidimensional poverty. In contrast, Djibouti has the lowest rate in the region at 34.6%, while Ethiopia and Somalia both have rates exceeding 80%.
• The region is not on track to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for eradicating extreme poverty. While the average poverty rate for the region was about 33.6% (60 million people) in 2019, it is projected to decrease to 25% by 2030 and 12% by 2040. By 2040, Somalia is expected to have the highest poverty rate at 48%, while Ethiopia's extreme poverty is projected to fall to 4.8%.
• Poverty drivers vary by country: in Sudan, government corruption and unemployment are primary causes, with poverty exceeding 60% in the Darfur states. In Somalia, poverty is driven by insecurity, weak governance, and conflict, particularly affecting nomadic pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. In South Sudan, poverty is exacerbated by political instability and a lack of inclusive growth, as the economy is driven by oil rather than agriculture.
• South Sudan's government prioritizes military and security spending over basic services. Military expenditure rose from approximately 6% of GDP in 2011 to nearly 21% in 2018, and the security payroll accounts for 58% of total government expenditure.
• The Horn of Africa generally has lower average income inequality than other low-income African countries, which may accelerate poverty reduction. The region's average Gini index was 0.36 (36%) in 2019, compared to 41.8% for other low-income African countries. At the country level, the Gini index ranges from 33.5% in Sudan to 46.3% in South Sudan.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=06-poverty}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }