Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This background note from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's energy export and import trends under a 'Current Path' forecast up to 2043, highlighting the contrast between a few major energy exporters and a majority of countries dependent on imports.

• Africa is currently a net energy exporter, primarily producing coal, unrefined oil, and gas for markets in Asia and Europe. On the Current Path forecast, total energy demand across the continent is not expected to exceed production until 2039.
• In 2023, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Libya were the leading energy exporters, each with export values exceeding imports by more than US$10 billion. Conversely, Morocco's energy imports exceeded US$5 billion in 2023, while Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tunisia, Uganda, Senegal, and Tanzania each imported more than US$1 billion.
• By 2043, Algeria is projected to be the dominant energy exporter in Africa with a value of US$70.2 billion, surpassing the combined exports of Nigeria (US$32 billion), Angola (US$24.2 billion), and Mozambique (US$14.5 billion). A second tier of exporters will include South Sudan (US$5.9 billion), the Republic of the Congo (US$5.7 billion), Chad (US$3.9 billion), and Gabon (US$2.7 billion).
• A significant number of African countries rely heavily on energy imports. In 2023, countries dependent on imports for over 50% of domestic demand included Senegal (95%), Morocco, Benin, Mauritania, Mauritius, Eritrea, Tunisia, Uganda, Mali, and Togo (59%). By 2043, this group is expected to expand to include Burkina Faso, Mauritius, Eritrea, Cote d’Ivoire, Uganda, Zambia, Ethiopia, Egypt, Niger, Madagascar, Sudan, Rwanda, Libya, Cameroon, and Djibouti.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=02-exports-vs-imports

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=02-exports-vs-imports.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=02-exports-vs-imports |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=02-exports-vs-imports}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }