Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This briefing note by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outlook for natural gas in Africa up to 2043, highlighting the tension between significant proven reserves and a global market facing slowing demand and potential supply gluts.

• Africa possesses significant natural gas reserves, totaling 55.6 BBOE, which represents approximately 10% of the global total. Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya hold nearly 80% of these reserves, although recent discoveries have occurred in countries such as Mozambique, Senegal, Tanzania, Mauritania, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Morocco.
• Despite high reserves, African nations lack the installed infrastructure for domestic gas use. Consequently, most production is expected to be exported to Asia, specifically China and India, while demand in Europe is projected to decline. The EU aims for a 35% reduction in gas demand by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, with the REPowerEU proposal suggesting a potential 52% reduction.
• The global LNG market may face a supply glut starting in mid-2025 and 2026 as new projects come online. This could lead to lower prices, tighter margins, and reduced profits for exporters, compounded by slowing global demand and price sensitivity in Asia.
• Major gas projects are underway across several African nations: Nigeria is developing the Train 7 project and AKK pipeline; Algeria is pursuing the Sonatrach-Eni joint venture in the Berkine field; Egypt is focusing on the Zohr field in the Mediterranean and projects in the Red Sea and Nile Delta; and Mozambique is advancing the Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG projects. Tanzania is planning an LNG project costing up to US$42 billion, with construction expected around 2026 and first exports by 2028.
• Political and security instability have hindered gas production in some regions. In Libya, production from the Wafa field has been negatively impacted by war. In Mozambique, an insurgency in Cabo Delgado province delayed the start of LNG projects, which are now expected to restart in 2024 or 2025.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }