Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

The document examines Africa's natural gas landscape, noting that while the continent holds approximately 10% of global proven gas reserves, a lack of domestic infrastructure means most production is destined for export. It highlights a potential global LNG supply glut starting in mid-2025 and 2026, which may lower prices and profits for exporters. Key reserves are concentrated in Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya, while new discoveries are emerging in countries like Mozambique and Senegal. Specific large-scale projects are detailed for Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

• Africa possesses approximately 10% of the world's proven gas reserves, totaling 55.6 BBOE, with nearly 80% of these reserves held by Nigeria, Egypt, Libya, and Algeria.
• Due to a lack of installed domestic infrastructure, the majority of Africa's natural gas production is expected to be exported to markets in Asia, specifically China and India, despite slowing global LNG demand.
• The global LNG market is projected to experience a supply glut beginning in mid-2025 and 2026, which could lead to lower prices, tighter margins, and reduced profits for exporting nations.
• Significant gas projects are underway across the continent, including the Train 7 project and AKK pipeline in Nigeria, the Zohr field in Egypt, and the Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG projects in Mozambique.
• Tanzania is planning an LNG project with an estimated cost of up to US$42 billion to export offshore gas reserves, with construction expected around 2026 and first exports forecast for 2028.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=06-gas}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }