Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This background note provides energy production and demand forecasts for Africa and the global community up to 2043, based on the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It details the transition of energy sources, the growth of African energy demand driven by population increases, and the status of fossil fuel reserves and renewable energy projects across the continent.

• Global energy demand is projected to grow faster than the population, increasing from 94.8 BBOE in 2023 to 124.1 BBOE by 2043, a 31% increase compared to a 15% population increase.
• The global energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas), which have stayed above 80% for two decades. Transition points include gas overtaking coal in 2026 and oil in 2031, while 'other renewables' are expected to overtake nuclear in 2024 and coal in 2040.
• Africa's energy demand is rising rapidly due to population growth, with its share of global demand expected to grow from 4.35% in 2019 to 14.82% by 2063. On the Current Path forecast, Africa's demand will exceed that of the EU27 in 2043 and the USA and India in 2050.
• While Africa is a net energy exporter, most of its countries will remain dependent on imports. By 2043, Algeria is projected to be the largest exporter, with a value of US$70.2 billion, exceeding the combined totals of Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique.
• Africa possesses significant fossil fuel reserves, including 111.4 BBOE of proven oil reserves (5% of global total) and 55.6 BBOE of proven gas reserves (10% of global total). However, a lack of domestic infrastructure means much of the natural gas will likely be exported to Asia.
• Africa has the world's highest untapped hydropower potential, but only 11% of its capacity is installed. Major projects include Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has made Ethiopia the largest source of hydroelectric power in Africa, and Tanzania's Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant.
• Nuclear energy is limited in Africa, with only South Africa operating a commercial plant (Koeberg). Egypt is currently constructing a 4.8 GW plant at El-Dabaa via a US$25 billion contract with Russia's Rosatom, with the first unit expected in 2028.
• Africa is projected to become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, with its emissions expected to overtake the EU in 2034, the USA in 2049, India in 2055, and China in 2061.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/Energy/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/Energy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/Energy/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/Energy/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }