Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This background note from the Institute for Security Studies provides projections for energy demand in Africa through 2043, highlighting a significant increase in total demand driven by population growth and development needs.

• Africa's total energy demand is projected to grow from 4.589 BBOE in 2023 to 10.26 BBOE by 2043, a trend driven by the fact that the continent's share of the global population is expected to rise from 18% in 2023 to 23% in 2043.
• There is significant disparity in annual energy use per person across African countries in 2023, with Libya at 18.4 barrels of oil equivalent and Mauritius at 16.1, compared to the Central African Republic at 0.6 and Burundi at 0.5. Under the Current Path forecast, Africa's energy demand will reach 4.8 barrels per person by 2043.
• The document compares African energy use to other regions in 2023, noting that the average American uses 40.7 barrels of oil equivalent and the average person in India uses 4.3. US demand is projected to decline to 37.7 barrels by 2043 due to modest energy efficiency improvements.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=03-energy-demand

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=03-energy-demand.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=03-energy-demand |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=03-energy-demand}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }