Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

The report examines Algeria's agricultural stagnation, highlighting low productivity, heavy reliance on food imports, and severe water stress. It details how climate change—manifesting as rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and sea-level rise—threatens food security and regional stability. The document argues that intensification and the removal of unsustainable water and energy subsidies are necessary to improve efficiency and transition toward cleaner energy.

• Algeria's agricultural sector is characterized by low productivity and limited arable land, with only about 8.4 million hectares (less than 4% of total land area) available. While the sector's absolute contribution is forecast to grow from €40.9 billion in 2020 to €50.2 billion by 2040, its share of GDP is projected to decline. Yields remain low at 3 metric tons per hectare, significantly trailing the average for lower middle-income Africa (5.2 tons per hectare).
• The country faces a 'double risk' of commodity vulnerability due to its heavy dependence on both hydrocarbon exports and food imports. Food imports were valued at approximately €6.7 billion in 2017, and food comprises about 20% of an annual import bill of approximately €46 billion. This dependence leaves Algeria susceptible to international supply chain disruptions and price shocks.
• Water resources are under extreme stress, with agriculture consuming the majority of demand (5.4 km out of 8.3 km). The report highlights an unsustainable subsidy system where subsidized electricity is used for desalination, and the resulting water is further subsidized. This policy is described as stalling the transition to cleaner energy.
• Climate change poses severe threats to Algeria, including temperature increases and precipitation declines. Northern Algeria recorded a 0.5 °C rise between 1931–1990 and could see a 1 °C increase by 2020, with a 2 °C rise expected by 2050. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 5–13%. Additionally, sea-level rise threatens the coast where 69% of the population resides, potentially causing population displacement.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=8 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }