Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of agriculture, water access, and climate change in Algeria, forecasting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's vulnerability to commodity shocks, low agricultural productivity, and the severe socio-economic risks posed by rising temperatures and sea-level rise.

• Algeria's agricultural sector is characterized by low productivity and limited arable land, which constitutes less than 4% of the total land area. While the sector's absolute contribution is forecast to grow from €40.9 billion in 2020 to €50.2 billion by 2040, its overall contribution to GDP is projected to decline steadily. Current yields of 3 metric tons per hectare are significantly lower than the 5.2 tons per hectare average for other lower middle-income African countries.
• The country faces a 'double risk' of commodity vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on hydrocarbons and food imports. Since the 1970s, agricultural demand has exceeded supply, leading to significant import dependence; in 2017, food imports were valued at approximately €6.7 billion. This vulnerability was exacerbated by the 2014-2020 slump in oil prices, which dropped from over US$100 to roughly US$20 per barrel, hindering the funding of an annual import bill of approximately €46 billion.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=8 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=08-agriculture}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }