Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

This briefing note examines the current state and projected future of hydropower in Africa up to 2043. It highlights the gap between the continent's vast untapped potential and its current installed capacity, while detailing specific large-scale projects in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and the DR Congo.

• Africa possesses the world's highest untapped hydropower potential, yet only about 11% of this potential is utilized, with an installed capacity of 37GW. In 2023, hydropower accounted for only 2.5% of the continent's energy production, which is equivalent to 0.16 BBOE.
• Under the 'Current Path' forecast, hydropower's contribution to Africa's energy production is expected to increase to 5.3% by 2043, representing less than 0.5 BBOE. A primary obstacle to implementation is the requirement for long transmission networks to move electricity, frequently through unstable regions.
• Ethiopia has become the largest source of hydroelectric power in Africa, surpassing the DR Congo, following the completion of the US$5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Located on the upper Blue Nile near the Sudan border, the GERD is the world's third-largest hydroelectric facility by installed capacity and can generate nearly 6.5 GW during peak operations.
• Other significant projects include Tanzania's Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant and Dam in the Rufiji River basin, designed to deliver 2.1 GW. In the DR Congo, while Inga I and II are built and Inga III is imminent, the larger Grand Inga project has been delayed since the 1950s due to corruption, inefficiencies, poor planning, and the challenge of laying transmission lines to markets in Nigeria and South Africa.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }