Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043

Africa possesses the world's highest untapped hydropower potential, yet only 11% of this capacity is currently installed. While large-scale projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant are advancing, growth is hindered by the need for extensive transmission networks in unstable regions and institutional failures. By 2043, hydropower is forecast to contribute 5.3% of the continent's energy production.

• Africa has the highest untapped hydropower potential globally, but only 37GW of installed capacity exists, representing approximately 11% of its total potential. In 2023, hydropower accounted for only 2.5% of the continent's energy production, or 0.16 BBOE.
• Under the Current Path forecast, hydropower's contribution to Africa's energy production is expected to rise to 5.3% by 2043, which is equivalent to less than 0.5 BBOE.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a US$5 billion project on the Blue Nile, is the third-largest hydroelectric facility globally by installed capacity and can generate nearly 6.5 GW at peak. Its completion has made Ethiopia the largest source of hydroelectric power in Africa, surpassing the DR Congo.
• Other significant projects include the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant and Dam in Tanzania, designed to deliver 2.1 GW, and the Grand Inga scheme in the DR Congo. The larger Grand Inga project has been delayed since the 1950s due to corruption, inefficiencies, poor planning, and the requirement for transmission lines spanning thousands of kilometres to reach markets in Nigeria and South Africa.
• A primary obstacle to the implementation of hydropower in Africa is the requirement for long transmission networks to move electricity, particularly through areas characterized as unstable.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2023). Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023background, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Background note on Africa’s Current Path Energy Future to 2043}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/Energy&topic=07-hydro}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }