Search Climate Insights Directory

The report identifies southern Africa as a climate change 'hotspot' where warming in the interior is occurring at approximately twice the global average rate. It warns that global warming of 3 °C could lead to the collapse of key crops and the livestock sector. Freshwater availability is projected to decline due to reduced rainfall and increased evaporation, while the risk of multi-year droughts and intense heat waves is expected to rise. These changes threaten food security, increase human mortality in urban areas, and place thousands of unique species at risk of premature extinction. The document emphasizes that the severity of these impacts depends on global mitigation efforts, with 'low mitigation futures' posing significantly higher risks than those limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C.

The Amazônia Sustainable Supply Chains (AMSSC) Mechanism, proposed by Natura and Mauá Capital, aims to scale the bioeconomy in the Brazilian Amazon by addressing financing gaps for smallholder cooperatives. The instrument consists of a receivables fund that provides upfront payments based on off-take agreements and an Enabling Conditions Facility (ECF) for technical and community support. The pilot targets 3 million hectares of forest conservation by 2030, potentially avoiding 1.4 billion tons of CO2 emissions. It employs a blended finance structure with subordinated, senior, and potentially mezzanine tranches to de-risk investments and catalyze further corporate and philanthropic capital.

The report assesses a financial intermediary, Nithio, that employs a Risk Analytics Engine to provide loans to solar distributors in Sub-Saharan Africa. By using AI, demographic, and geospatial data to forecast customer repayment risk, the instrument aims to move beyond the top 10 regional developers and reach smaller, local distributors and last-mile customers. The instrument has raised USD 23 million and targets a deployment of USD 500 million by 2029, with projected environmental impacts including the abatement of 93,000 metric tons of CO2e per year by 2025.

The Guarantee Fund for Biogas (GFB) is designed as the first environmental guarantee fund in Brazil to unlock public and private credit for independent biogas developers who lack the collateral required by lenders. Structured as a CVM-compliant fixed-income fund investing in Brazilian treasury bills, the GFB will provide short-term collateral to enable loans during the construction phase of projects. A pilot phase targeting five Brazilian states aims to leverage USD 53 million in capital to enable USD 67 million in loans in the first year, with a 10-year goal of enabling USD 271 million in credit. The fund utilizes a blended finance structure with a 50% first-loss tranche for concessional investors to mitigate credit risk and lower fees for developers. If scaled and replicated to address 10% of Brazil's biogas potential, the instrument could enable USD 6.1 billion in loans and mitigate 7.8 million tons of CO2e annually.

The P-REC Aggregation Fund monetizes Peace Renewable Energy Credits (P-RECs)—a high-quality type of International Renewable Energy Certificate (I-REC) with peacebuilding co-benefits—to provide upfront capital to renewable energy developers in fragile states. By aggregating these certificates and selling them to impact-seeking corporations (such as RE100 members), the Fund aims to provide developers with approximately 10% of construction costs, thereby unlocking further infrastructure finance. The report models a 13-year proof-of-concept phase with a USD 10.25 million fund size, projecting the generation of 812,116 P-RECs and the avoidance of approximately 658,000 tCO2e of emissions.

The document analyzes the growth of commercial aviation and its contribution to climate change, noting that while aircraft efficiency has improved, increasing traffic is driving up total emissions. It details the specific warming effects of CO2 and contrails, the role of air freight, and the economic drivers—particularly the expanding middle class in Asia—that are projected to triple commercial aircraft emissions by 2050. It also discusses international and U.S. regulatory efforts to set CO2 standards for new aircraft.

The briefing advocates for a 'Clean Trucks New Jersey' program, combining the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) and Heavy-Duty Omnibus (HDO) rules to replace diesel trucks with zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Based on an MJ Bradley & Associates study, the program is projected to deliver $11.6 billion in societal benefits by 2050, including significant reductions in NOx and PM2.5, avoided premature deaths, and nearly 19 million metric tons of avoided CO2-equivalent emissions. The authors emphasize that while these rules are a start, additional targeted measures are necessary to protect environmental justice communities, particularly in areas like Camden County, Newark, and Elizabeth, which suffer disproportionate pollution impacts.

The report warns that South Africa is on a 'worst-case' climate trajectory (RCP 8.5), which will lead to extreme heat, water scarcity, and food insecurity, disproportionately harming youth. It details regional collapses in agriculture and tourism, the expansion of informal settlements due to climate-induced migration, and the severe mental health trauma facing children. The author argues that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, large parts of the country may become uninhabitable, leading to systemic social conflict and economic collapse.

Climate Central developed an Urban Heat Intensity Index for 159 U.S. cities, finding that New Orleans, Newark, New York City, Houston, and San Francisco have the highest intensity scores. The report identifies albedo, lack of greenery, population density, and building height as primary drivers of the UHI effect. These conditions exacerbate heat waves, worsen air quality through ground-level ozone formation, and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, particularly those in formerly redlined neighborhoods. Proposed solutions include short-term emergency cooling measures and long-term infrastructure changes such as planting trees, installing green and cool roofs, and deploying solar energy.

The study analyzes five development scenarios for Kenya's residential cooking sector to quantify GHG emissions, health impacts, and fuel demand. It finds that shifting from 'modern cooking' (LPG and improved biomass stoves) to 'clean cooking' (electric, biogas, and bioethanol) can significantly reduce emissions, with the most ambitious scenario achieving net-zero by mid-century. Implementation of the net-zero scenario could avoid nearly 500,000 premature deaths over 30 years. However, the transition is hindered by high upfront costs, cultural practices like fuel stacking, and the absence of a comprehensive, sector-wide strategy.

The briefing warns that PL No. 1709/2019 would halve the required width of Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs) for all natural watercourses in Brazil. This legislative change would remove protection from over 2 million hectares of native forest in the Amazon, an area equivalent to the total deforestation recorded in the Legal Amazon during 2019 and 2020. The authors argue that such a reduction would exacerbate deforestation and threaten the water cycle and biodiversity, particularly in the Amazon basin where many rivers exceed 600 meters in width.

Fossil-fuel burning appliances in the US contribute significantly to outdoor and indoor air pollution, climate change, and public health disparities. Gas appliances are particularly problematic, emitting more than twice as much NOX as gas power plants. RMI proposes that the EPA implement a NOX standard of performance under Clean Air Act Section 111(b), requiring all new appliances to be electric by 2030. This transition could avoid over 500,000 tons of NOX and 14,400 tons of PM2.5 annually by 2045, potentially saving over 3,750 lives per year and providing $21 billion in annual economic benefits. The document emphasizes that electric appliances are cost-effective and that policies should include incentives to ensure low-income consumers can access these technologies.

The report details CDKN's efforts to bridge the gap between climate knowledge and action through regional programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America. Key initiatives include improving climate information on Wikipedia, tailoring IPCC reports for regional audiences, and mainstreaming gender into climate policy in countries like Peru, Ecuador, and Ethiopia. The network also focused on urban resilience in India and Nepal, and community-led responses to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the critical role of youth-led organisations, particularly the YoNeLCR, in fostering resilience and peacebuilding in communities affected by the Boko Haram insurgency in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. It finds that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly hindered these efforts by limiting face-to-face community interaction and reducing donor funding, with some programme implementation dropping to less than 20% of usual levels. The document argues against the narrative of youth as merely victims or perpetrators, showcasing their roles as peace messengers, ICT innovators, and CSO leaders. It recommends that the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and African Union (AU) create formal plans to integrate youth-led organisations into regional stabilisation strategies.

The document outlines a comprehensive modeling framework designed to assess the impact of three policy scenarios—the California Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) Rule, the NOx Omnibus Rule, and a '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario—on the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet. The framework integrates five analyses: fuel use and emissions, health impacts, economic and jobs effects, utility impacts, and infrastructure gaps. It utilizes tools such as the STate Emission Pathways (STEP) Tool, EPA's MOVES3 and COBRA, and IMPLAN software to quantify changes in greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants (NOx and PM), and macroeconomic metrics like GDP and employment. The report details specific assumptions regarding battery cost trajectories, charging infrastructure requirements, and the social cost of greenhouse gases to ensure a standardized approach for subsequent state-specific reports.

The report identifies significant energy and emission reduction potentials through the adoption of 'Green ACs' in public buildings, while highlighting financial, political, and technical barriers that hinder the implementation of Green Public Procurement.

The Youth Enterprise Grants (YEG) pilot project provided approximately $1,200 in cash and a smartphone to 1,018 youth in Mathare, Nairobi. The project found that mobile money transfers are highly feasible in urban slum environments and lead to a significant shift toward self-employment, with the proportion of youth working for themselves increasing from 37% to 79%. While smartphones enhanced market access and technical skill acquisition via the internet, specific business-management apps had limited take-up. Financial well-being improved markedly, with the percentage of recipients able to meet daily expenses rising from 28% to 82%. The report highlights a strong preference for grants over loans and an unmet demand for digital financial services that allow users to 'lock' or compartmentalise funds for saving.

RMI analysis indicates that Colorado's plan to add nearly 200 new highway lane-miles by 2030 could induce 1 to 1.5 billion additional annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), equivalent to adding 70,000 more vehicles to the roads each year. The report argues that road expansion fails to provide long-term congestion relief because travel demand increases proportionally to new capacity, a phenomenon known as induced travel. These expansions are estimated to increase cumulative direct and upstream greenhouse gas emissions by 8 to 15 million tons of CO2-equivalent through 2050, costing over $3 billion in direct project costs. RMI advocates for shifting investment toward public transit, micro-mobility, and compact, mixed-use community development to achieve a 10 percent reduction in VMT by 2030.

The briefing details the work of the WTO's Informal Working Group (IWG) on MSMEs, specifically the adoption of a six-part package of recommendations in December 2020 to address barriers like access to finance, information, and trade facilitation. It also analyzes the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on MSMEs, particularly women-led businesses, and outlines national and international policy responses. Future plans include the development of the 'Trade4MSMEs' web platform and further exploration of digitalization and e-commerce customs duties.

The LIFE-A2J-EARL project focused on bridging the 'implementation gap' of EU environmental laws by empowering the judiciary, public administrations, and public interest lawyers. Operating across eight EU Member States, the project produced a comprehensive legal guide, national toolkits, and a digital platform to facilitate access to justice. It delivered 48 training sessions and 12 webinars, reaching over 2,000 participants. Despite delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting judicial attitudes in some regions, the project successfully increased stakeholder awareness of the Aarhus Convention and EU case-law. Key outputs included a database of 117 public interest lawyers from 15 countries and a final virtual conference attended by 285 participants.