The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation

The document analyzes the growth of commercial aviation and its contribution to climate change, noting that while aircraft efficiency has improved, increasing traffic is driving up total emissions. It details the specific warming effects of CO2 and contrails, the role of air freight, and the economic drivers—particularly the expanding middle class in Asia—that are projected to triple commercial aircraft emissions by 2050. It also discusses international and U.S. regulatory efforts to set CO2 standards for new aircraft.

• Commercial aviation's total climate impact is estimated at 3.5 percent of total anthropogenic warming for both 2011 and 2018.
• Global CO2 emissions from commercial aviation rose from 710 million tons in 2013 to 905 million tons in 2018. In 2017, the United States accounted for 23.5 percent of the global total, amounting to 202.5 million tons.
• Contrails and contrail-induced cirrus clouds create a warming effect that can be up to 3 times the impact of CO2, and their collective influence currently exceeds the total warming from all aircraft CO2 emissions since powered flight began.
• Commercial aircraft emissions are projected to triple by 2050 due to the growth of passenger and freight traffic.
• The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established CO2 standards for new aircraft requiring an average 4 percent reduction in cruise fuel consumption compared to 2015 levels, with full application to all new deliveries starting January 1, 2028.
• Economic growth in Asia is a primary driver of aviation demand; IATA predicts that 44 percent of additional passenger trips over the next 20 years will originate in China and India.
• Air freight, while only 1 percent of world trade by volume, represents 35 percent by value and shows a growth trend similar to passenger aviation.

APA

Environmental and Energy Study Institute (2021). The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. https://www.eesi.org/files/FactSheet_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2021.pdf

Chicago

Environmental and Energy Study Institute. The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. 2021. https://www.eesi.org/files/FactSheet_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Environmental and Energy Study Institute |title=The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation |date=September 2021 |url=https://www.eesi.org/files/FactSheet_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{environmentalandenergystudyinstitute2021growth, author = {{Environmental and Energy Study Institute}}, title = {{The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation}}, institution = {Environmental and Energy Study Institute}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://www.eesi.org/files/FactSheet_Climate_Impacts_Aviation_2019rev2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }