Clean Trucks Analysis

The document outlines a comprehensive modeling framework designed to assess the impact of three policy scenarios—the California Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) Rule, the NOx Omnibus Rule, and a '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario—on the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicle fleet. The framework integrates five analyses: fuel use and emissions, health impacts, economic and jobs effects, utility impacts, and infrastructure gaps. It utilizes tools such as the STate Emission Pathways (STEP) Tool, EPA's MOVES3 and COBRA, and IMPLAN software to quantify changes in greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants (NOx and PM), and macroeconomic metrics like GDP and employment. The report details specific assumptions regarding battery cost trajectories, charging infrastructure requirements, and the social cost of greenhouse gases to ensure a standardized approach for subsequent state-specific reports.

• The modeling framework targets the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) fleet, which consists of over 23 million vehicles that emit 574 million metric tons of greenhouse gases annually, representing about 32 percent of all on-road vehicle GHG emissions.
• M/HD vehicles are a primary source of air pollution, contributing more than 60 percent of the nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) emitted by on-road vehicles, which disproportionately affects low-income and disadvantaged communities near transportation infrastructure.
• The analysis models three policy scenarios against a 'business as usual' baseline: the ACT Rule (increasing ZEV percentages from 2025), the ACT Rule plus NOx Omnibus Rule (requiring 75-90% NOx reductions for new engines), and a '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario where virtually all new trucks sold after 2040 are ZEV and the grid is virtually carbon free by 2050.
• The framework projects that M/HD EV battery costs will follow a trajectory lagging light-duty EV costs by five years, with costs estimated to fall to $132/kWh in 2025, $86/kWh in 2030, and $61/kWh in 2035.
• By 2040, the purchase cost of ZEV combination trucks and Class 2B trucks is estimated to be lower than equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks, though other M/HD ZEV types are expected to maintain a cost premium through 2050.
• Charging infrastructure needs vary by vehicle type: most M/HD vehicles are assumed to use overnight depot-based charging, but combination trucks—due to long-haul operations—will rely heavily on a shared public network of high-power chargers (500+ kW/port).
• The framework uses the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases to monetize climate benefits, applying a 3 percent discount rate with CO2 values starting at $51 per metric ton in 2020 and rising to $85/MT by 2050.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2021). Clean Trucks Analysis. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/clean-trucks-report-methodology.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Clean Trucks Analysis. 2021. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/clean-trucks-report-methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Clean Trucks Analysis |date=June 2021 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/clean-trucks-report-methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2021clean, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Clean Trucks Analysis}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/clean-trucks-report-methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }