Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century

This report by the Centre for Environmental Rights, authored by Robert Scholes and Francois Engelbrecht of the Global Change Institute, details the human-caused climate impacts affecting southern Africa. It highlights the region's status as a climate 'hotspot' where warming is occurring at twice the global average rate, leading to severe risks for agriculture, water security, human health, and biodiversity. The document emphasizes that the severity of these impacts depends on global mitigation efforts, with warming above 2°C posing catastrophic risks to staple crops and livestock.

• Southern Africa is identified as a climate change 'hotspot' because its subtropical climate is already warm and dry, and it is projected to become drastically warmer and likely drier. Warming in the interior of the region has occurred at approximately twice the global average rate over recent decades.
• Agricultural production, specifically staple crops and livestock, faces a high likelihood of reduction. At 3°C of global warming, the maize crop—the region's staple food—and the livestock sector are likely to collapse due to the combined effects of high temperatures, drought, and heat stress.
• Freshwater availability is critically limited and projected to decrease further due to lower rainfall and increased evaporation. In semi-arid landscapes like most of South Africa, the hydrological system amplifies climate signals three-fold, meaning a small decrease in rainfall leads to a much larger decrease in usable water resources.
• The risk of long-duration and multi-year droughts is increasing. In the winter rainfall region, the risk of multi-year droughts has already increased by a factor of three due to climate change. These events overwhelm existing coping mechanisms and can lead to farm bankruptcies and high wildlife mortality.
• Heat waves are expected to increase in number, intensity, and duration. This poses significant risks to human health and labor; the capacity for humans to perform outdoor work approximately halves for every 2°C rise in wet bulb globe temperature above specific thresholds (25°C for heavy work, 30°C for light work).
• There is an increased risk of severe storms, including intense tropical cyclones and 'super cell' thunderstorms. These events cause loss of life and infrastructure damage; for example, Cyclone Idai in March 2019 affected 2.2 million people and caused losses exceeding USD 773 million.
• Biodiversity is under severe threat, with thousands of species at risk of premature extinction. In South Africa, 14% of plants, 17% of mammals, and 15% of birds are currently classified as threatened with extinction, a risk that rises steeply with rapid anthropogenic climate change and habitat fragmentation.

APA

Scholes, R., & Engelbrecht, F. (2021). Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Scholes, Robert, and Francois Engelbrecht. Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholes |first1=Robert |last2=Engelbrecht |first2=Francois |title=Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=September 2021 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholes2021climate, author = {Scholes, Robert and Engelbrecht, Francois}, title = {{Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }