Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century

The report identifies southern Africa as a climate change 'hotspot' where warming in the interior is occurring at approximately twice the global average rate. It warns that global warming of 3 °C could lead to the collapse of key crops and the livestock sector. Freshwater availability is projected to decline due to reduced rainfall and increased evaporation, while the risk of multi-year droughts and intense heat waves is expected to rise. These changes threaten food security, increase human mortality in urban areas, and place thousands of unique species at risk of premature extinction. The document emphasizes that the severity of these impacts depends on global mitigation efforts, with 'low mitigation futures' posing significantly higher risks than those limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C.

• Southern Africa is considered a climate change 'hotspot' because its subtropical climate is projected to become drastically warmer and likely drier, with interior warming occurring at about twice the global average rate.
• Agricultural production, specifically staple crops like maize and the livestock sector, faces a high likelihood of reduction and potential collapse if global warming reaches 3 °C.
• Freshwater resources are critically limited and will further decrease due to lower rainfall and higher evaporation; in semi-arid areas of South Africa, the hydrological system amplifies climate signals approximately three-fold.
• The risk of long-duration and multi-year droughts is increasing; for example, the risk of such droughts in the winter rainfall region has already increased by a factor of three due to climate change.
• Heat waves will increase in number, intensity, and duration, leading to higher human mortality—particularly for those over 65—and a reduction in outdoor work capacity by approximately half if global warming exceeds 2 °C.
• There is an increased risk of severe storms and intense tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean, which cause significant loss of life and infrastructure damage, as evidenced by Cyclone Idai in 2019.
• Biodiversity is under severe threat, with 14% of plants, 17% of mammals, and 15% of birds in South Africa already classified as threatened with extinction, a risk that rises steeply with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

APA

Scholes, R., & Engelbrecht, F. (2021). Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Scholes, Robert, and Francois Engelbrecht. Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholes |first1=Robert |last2=Engelbrecht |first2=Francois |title=Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=September 2021 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholes2021climate, author = {Scholes, Robert and Engelbrecht, Francois}, title = {{Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Climate-impacts-in-South-Africa_Final_September_2021.FINAL_.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }