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The report forecasts that COVID-19 will significantly hinder Africa's progress toward the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in eliminating extreme poverty. Depending on the recovery scenario (V, U, or L), the number of Africans living in extreme poverty by 2030 is projected to increase to between 607 million and 640 million. The analysis highlights a severe short-term shock in 2020, with an additional 14 million people falling below the US$1.90 poverty threshold. Economic consequences include an expected increase in debt by 5 to 9 percentage points of GDP and a heightened dependence on international aid due to domestic economic contraction. The most negatively affected countries are identified as Nigeria, the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania. Other SDG targets, including undernutrition, infant mortality, and education completion rates, are also expected to deteriorate or miss targets further.

The report highlights severe education deficits in the Horn of Africa, where conflict, gender inequality, and poor infrastructure hinder progress. It projects that by 2040, average years of education for adults will remain significantly lower than both the African and global averages, with primary school enrolment acting as a critical bottleneck for most countries except Ethiopia.

The document outlines the purpose and scope of a special report on Tunisia's potential development pathways to 2040. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, the analysis establishes a 'Current Path' and compares it against three policy-driven scenarios: growth, sustainability and equality, and leapfrogging. The report emphasizes that governance reform is a necessary foundation for all three scenarios. For comparative analysis, Tunisia is categorized as a lower middle-income economy, and the report utilizes global lower middle-income groups and regions such as sub-Saharan Africa for benchmarking.

The report assesses Algeria's development trajectory to 2040, identifying governance and the resulting economic policy framework as the primary drivers of the country's challenges. It utilizes the International Futures modelling platform to contrast a 'Current Path' forecast with a prospective 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by a democratic government and equitable prosperity. For comparative analysis, the report benchmarks Algeria against other lower middle-income economies in Africa and global upper middle-income groups.

The document outlines three alternative development scenarios for Tunisia—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to contrast with a 'Current Path' forecast. It identifies five foundational reforms essential for progress across all scenarios: improved business regulation, increased economic freedom, reduced corruption, better primary and secondary education, and the reduction of subsidies for wealthier households.

This policy brief argues that water and sanitation are strategic assets essential for Africa's peace, energy transition, and food security. It advocates for a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach and Strategic Asset Management (SAM) to address a $1 trillion infrastructure investment gap by 2040 and mitigate the 'threat multiplier' effect of climate change. The brief recommends integrating water governance into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and strengthening transboundary cooperation across the continent's 63 shared river and lake basins to prevent conflict and promote regional stability.

The report finds that SADC's maritime security governance is fragmented, with a significant disconnect between blue-economy rhetoric and actual security planning. While the 2022 Integrated Maritime Security Strategy (IMSS) represents a normative advance over the 2011 strategy, its implementation remains uneven and under-resourced. Regional coordination is primarily driven by external funding and bilateral initiatives, such as South Africa's Operation Copper, rather than formal SADC mechanisms. The report highlights a structural paradox where SADC's most ocean-dependent members—the island states—are the least embedded in its collective security frameworks, preferring partnerships with the Indian Ocean Commission and external powers like India, France, and the EU.

The report argues that the African Union Commission's reform, which reduced commissioners from eight to six, has led to institutional imbalances where crisis response overshadows conflict prevention. It highlights a significant funding gap for the new structure, costing an additional US$53 million. The document also analyzes the rise of military coups, attributing them to 'democratic subversions' such as the removal of term limits, and discusses the strain on Africa's humanitarian system due to conflict and climate shocks.

The report analyzes maritime security in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), emphasizing that threats like climate change, illegal fishing, and piracy are interconnected. It highlights the risks of increasing militarisation by global powers and the environmental dangers of rerouting shipping around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea instability.

The report examines the application of new technologies to address explosive hazards in Africa, including landmines, explosive remnants of war (ERW), improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and ammunition storage area (ASA) explosions. It evaluates remote sensing tools like visible light cameras, thermal imaging, LiDAR, and SAR, alongside AI-powered deep learning for data processing. The document also explores alternative disposal methods such as thermite tools, binary liquid explosives, and explosive harvesting systems. It concludes by assessing technology readiness levels (TRLs) and providing recommendations for African states, the African Union, and donors to modernize HMA operations despite shrinking funding.

The report examines how Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad manage the influx of Sudanese refugees, highlighting a systemic gap between international legal commitments and the lived realities of displaced persons. It identifies specific failures in each country—Egypt's security-heavy approach, South Sudan's operational fragility, and Chad's institutional weakness—and recommends regional coordination through the AU and IGAD to establish a predictable protection framework.

The report examines Sudan's history of failed transitional justice efforts and proposes a multi-pillar framework—including mental health support, truth-finding, and criminal accountability—to achieve sustainable peace. It emphasizes that while a cessation of hostilities is ideal for full implementation, certain elements like psychosocial support should begin immediately. The authors advocate for a victim-centered, Sudanese-led process that integrates traditional justice mechanisms and maintains a transnational scope to address harms involving South Sudan and the diaspora.

The report analyzes Africa's projected development through 2043, contrasting a baseline 'Current Path' of steady but insufficient growth with a 'Combined scenario' of integrated reforms. While the Current Path shows modest poverty reduction and economic growth, the Combined scenario demonstrates transformative potential, including a GDP (MER) of US$8.9 trillion and the removal of 199 million additional people from extreme poverty. The analysis identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reform, and human capital investment as the three most decisive drivers for accelerating this transformation.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The report examines the intersection of Africa's blue economy and climate change, highlighting vulnerabilities in fisheries, maritime transport, and tourism. It argues for a transition toward renewable ocean energy, the expansion of blue carbon initiatives, and the implementation of integrated, regional governance to mitigate economic risks and environmental degradation.

Zimbabwe is characterized by a deep crisis of confidence and a trust deficit in its leadership and institutions. The ZANU-PF government prioritizes short-term survival and power retention over structural reforms, utilizing a system of patronage and 'lawfare' to neutralize political opposition and civil society organizations (CSOs). Economically, the country suffers from extreme poverty, hyperinflation, and a volatile currency environment, exemplified by the introduction of the gold-backed ZiG. While the government pursues a 'constructive re-engagement' agenda with international creditors and Western powers, the report suggests that these efforts may be deflection tactics rather than genuine commitments to democratic reform. State capacity is hampered by the conflation of party and state interests, and the opposition remains fragmented and ineffective.

The BBNJ Agreement, or High Seas Treaty, aims to regulate 64% of the ocean's surface through four pillars: marine genetic resources, area-based management, environmental impact assessments, and capacity building. While the African Group of Negotiators helped shape the treaty, ratification among African states remains low, with only seven of 55 countries having completed the process. Non-ratifying states risk exclusion from the Conference of the Parties (COP) decision-making and benefit-sharing arrangements for marine genetic resources. The document highlights the potential for designating marine protected areas near Africa, such as the Walvis Ridge and Saya de Malha Bank, and suggests that African states coordinate ministries and adopt cost-effective surveillance technologies, like uncrewed vessels, to manage these areas.

South Africa has committed to an ambitious plan of action to prevent and respond to violence against children by 2027, including implementing parenting programmes in 52 districts and strengthening school safety via the 2024 Basic Education Laws Amendment Act. However, the authors contend that these goals are jeopardized by the Social Development Department's failure to pay NGO service providers in provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as a lack of operational competence and clean audits at the national level. The document emphasizes that because NGOs deliver most services, the state must implement the Sector Funding Policy and adopt a holistic approach to family services to succeed.

The East African Community (EAC) has expanded its membership to include the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Somalia, aiming to increase its geopolitical influence and market size. However, this growth strains the bloc's institutional capacity, particularly regarding financial sustainability, bureaucratic efficiency, and the harmonisation of economic policies among fragile states. The inclusion of conflict-prone members introduces significant security risks, though it also provides opportunities for collective regional stability and trade integration through frameworks like the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area Agreement.

The report argues that Africa remains hindered by colonial legacies, financial dependency, and weak institutional leadership. It highlights critical crises in food security, youth unemployment, and rising conflict, while critiquing the AU's leadership selection process and its focus on reparations over immediate structural reforms. The document recommends a more proactive AU Commission, a reformed Peace and Security Architecture, and a unified foreign policy to transition Africa from a passive observer to a powerful global actor.