The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This report section outlines three alternative development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to contrast with a 'Current Path' forecast. It identifies five foundational reforms across governance, education, and subsidies that are essential for progress regardless of the chosen pathway.

• The report identifies three alternative development pathways for Tunisia to achieve a more prosperous future: Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality.
• Progress in Tunisia is contingent upon five foundational reforms: improved business regulation, increased economic freedom, reduced corruption, better quality of primary and secondary education, and the reduction of subsidies for wealthier households.
• The proposed interventions are designed with different implementation timelines starting in 2020: governance reforms are modeled as a five-year push, education improvements as a ten-year sustained push, and subsidy reforms as a gradual process continuing until 2040.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2026). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=11-scenarios

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=11-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=11-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=11-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }