Is Zimbabwe in a slow-motion race to the bottom?

Zimbabwe is characterized by a deep crisis of confidence and a trust deficit in its leadership and institutions. The ZANU-PF government prioritizes short-term survival and power retention over structural reforms, utilizing a system of patronage and 'lawfare' to neutralize political opposition and civil society organizations (CSOs). Economically, the country suffers from extreme poverty, hyperinflation, and a volatile currency environment, exemplified by the introduction of the gold-backed ZiG. While the government pursues a 'constructive re-engagement' agenda with international creditors and Western powers, the report suggests that these efforts may be deflection tactics rather than genuine commitments to democratic reform. State capacity is hampered by the conflation of party and state interests, and the opposition remains fragmented and ineffective.

• ZANU-PF maintains its grip on power by insulating itself from civic or political threats and influencing both the political opposition and civil society organizations.
• Zimbabwe suffers from a profound trust deficit and crisis of confidence regarding its leaders, state capacity, and the integrity of its institutions.
• The economy is marked by extreme volatility and a lack of trust in the local currency, leading to the replacement of the failed Zimbabwe dollar with the gold-backed ZiG in April 2024.
• State institutions have been incapacitated by a system of patronage and the ruling party's desire to retain power, leading to a public sector that prioritizes party loyalty over professional competence.
• The government has used 'lawfare' and state violence to silence dissent, specifically utilizing COVID-19 pandemic measures to clamp down on protests and arrests of activists.
• Civil society organizations are at an inflection point, facing existential threats from the Private Voluntary Organisations Act of 2025, which increases government oversight and potentially criminalizes human rights work.
• The political opposition, specifically the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), has failed to provide a viable national vision or strategic alternative, leading to internal implosion and leadership crises.
• ZANU-PF has successfully used regional diplomacy and the narrative of sanctions to win support from SADC and the AU, effectively neutralizing regional pressure for democratic reforms.
• Despite the African Development Bank-led debt resolution process, the government continues unsustainable borrowing from Afreximbank at interest rates up to 12%.

APA

Chikohomero, R. (2025). Is Zimbabwe in a slow-motion race to the bottom? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756894765102-sar-62.pdf

Chicago

Chikohomero, Ringisai. Is Zimbabwe in a slow-motion race to the bottom? Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756894765102-sar-62.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chikohomero |first1=Ringisai |title=Is Zimbabwe in a slow-motion race to the bottom? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2025 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756894765102-sar-62.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chikohomero2025zimbabwe, author = {Chikohomero, Ringisai}, title = {{Is Zimbabwe in a slow-motion race to the bottom?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756894765102-sar-62.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }