Africa’s blue economy and climate change

The report examines the intersection of Africa's blue economy and climate change, highlighting vulnerabilities in fisheries, maritime transport, and tourism. It argues for a transition toward renewable ocean energy, the expansion of blue carbon initiatives, and the implementation of integrated, regional governance to mitigate economic risks and environmental degradation.

• The African Union estimates that by 2030, the continent's blue economy could be valued at approximately US$405 billion and support 57 million jobs.
• Climate change poses a severe threat to African fisheries, with projected catch declines of 30% or more by 2050 in several tropical West and Central African nations, including Gabon, Liberia, and Côte d’Ivoire.
• Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing causes annual economic losses for Africa estimated between US$10 billion and US$23 billion, with total illegal catches reaching 3.1 million tonnes per year.
• Africa's maritime ports are highly vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather; expected aggregate damage to 12 major African cities by 2050 is estimated between US$65 billion and US$137.5 billion.
• The maritime sector is facing new regulatory pressures, including a carbon levy approved by the IMO in April 2025 to reduce GHG emissions.
• Coastal tourism is highly susceptible to climate-driven biodiversity loss; Egypt risks losing up to 80% of its US$7 billion annual revenue from coral reef-based tourism by 2100 due to bleaching.
• Africa faces an energy paradox where it possesses vast offshore oil and gas reserves—particularly in Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, and Ghana—yet 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack electricity access.
• There is significant untapped potential for ocean-based renewable energy, including offshore wind in Morocco and South Africa, and tidal energy in Tanzania, Kenya, and Mozambique.
• Deep seabed mining for critical minerals presents high environmental risks and is likely to be dominated by foreign entities, potentially leaving African nations with limited profits and significant ecological damage.
• Blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves and seagrasses, offer critical opportunities for climate mitigation and revenue through carbon credits, as demonstrated by the Vanga Blue Forest Project in Kenya and initiatives in Senegal and The Gambia.

APA

Beaumont, J., Hampton, S., & Willima, D. (2025). Africa’s blue economy and climate change. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756968353511-monograph-212.pdf

Chicago

Beaumont, Judy, Shannon Hampton, and David Willima. Africa’s blue economy and climate change. Institute for Security Studies, 2025. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756968353511-monograph-212.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Beaumont |first1=Judy |last2=Hampton |first2=Shannon |last3=Willima |first3=David |title=Africa’s blue economy and climate change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2025 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756968353511-monograph-212.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{beaumont2025africas, author = {Beaumont, Judy and Hampton, Shannon and Willima, David}, title = {{Africa’s blue economy and climate change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1756968353511-monograph-212.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }