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This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the impact of various global carbon tax scenarios on Africa's energy transition and economic future, specifically highlighting the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario.

The Climate Bonds Initiative report argues that the European Union must accelerate its energy transition to eliminate a critical vulnerability: its 60% reliance on fossil fuel imports. It proposes a five-step strategy focusing on electrification, grid connectivity, flexibility, industrial decarbonization, and the use of the EU Methane Regulation to phase out imports from high-risk suppliers like Russia and the US. The report highlights that while 89% of end-energy demand can be electrified, current investment levels (2.1% of GDP) fall short of the 1.5 trillion euros per year required by 2050.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the priorities and potential benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It analyzes Africa's historical reliance on primary commodity exports, the prevalence of informal intra-African trade due to high formal costs, and how the AfCFTA aims to drive industrialization and structural transformation by reducing trade barriers and fostering regional value chains.

This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.

This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected impacts of a 'Demographics and Health scenario' on Africa by 2043. It compares this scenario against a 'Current Path' baseline, forecasting improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), disease burden, infant mortality, life expectancy, and overall economic prosperity.

This research paper introduction from the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of the current global climate crisis, highlighting record-breaking temperatures in 2024, the increasing frequency of weather-related disasters, and the rising scale of climate-induced displacement. It emphasizes the gap between current policies and the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, while noting the persistent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

This research paper examines the implementation challenges of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on the economic disparities between member states and the resulting risks for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

This report section analyzes the impact of commodity dependence on African economies, detailing the 'resource curse' where heavy reliance on raw material exports correlates with poor governance, political corruption, and slow economic growth. It contrasts the development trajectories of resource-rich and resource-poor nations and discusses the role of sovereign wealth funds and the global energy transition in shaping future demand.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes trends in stability and armed conflict in Africa, highlighting the role of state-based violence, organized crime, and rapid urbanization in driving fatality rates.

This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This report conclusion outlines a strategic vision for Africa's industrialisation by 2043, arguing that a shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing value-added goods can drive significant GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying foreign direct investment as key catalysts for this transformation.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, structural, and policy-driven reasons for Africa's under-industrialisation. It identifies a combination of colonial legacies, infrastructure deficits, skills gaps, and capital constraints as primary barriers, while noting that some countries have seen success through focused industrial strategies and the potential for global supply chain shifts to create new opportunities.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how agricultural technologies (AgTech) and improved access to finance and fertilisers can address food insecurity and low productivity in Africa. It highlights the role of digital tools in providing credit, insurance, and data-driven farming advice, while detailing strategic efforts to increase domestic fertiliser production and soil health across the continent.

This report analyzes the drivers of economic growth in Africa, focusing on the roles of labour, capital, and multifactor productivity (MFP). It argues that due to a late demographic dividend, Africa's growth over the next two decades must rely primarily on physical capital accumulation and technological gains rather than labour-fueled growth.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical shift in African development strategies from the state-led goals of the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action to the market-driven Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) imposed by the World Bank and IMF. It analyzes how these competing frameworks, alongside Cold War proxy conflicts and debt crises, contributed to a period of economic decline and decreased per capita income between 1980 and 1994.

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.

This research paper describes the 'Combined scenario' for employment and labour market transformation in Africa as part of the Agenda 2063 thematic futures. It contrasts current trends of high informality and low productivity with a projected future of increased formalization, industrial resurgence, and digital transformation.