AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes trends in stability and armed conflict in Africa, highlighting the role of state-based violence, organized crime, and rapid urbanization in driving fatality rates.

• Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience higher fatality rates per million people than any other region due to its rapid population growth, youth bulge, and rapid urbanization.
• State-based violence is the primary driver of growth in the conflict burden globally, with governments increasingly responsible for more fatalities than non-state actors. Since 2013, sub-Saharan Africa has seen the most state-based armed conflicts, specifically in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
• Non-state conflict has escalated over the last decade, driven largely by organized crime groups motivated by economic gain rather than political goals. These groups often create parallel governance structures in areas where the state is absent through bribery, intimidation, and co-option.
• Within sub-Saharan Africa, the highest rates of criminality are found in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and the DR Congo, while the lowest rates are in Comoros, Seychelles, Rwanda, and Sao Tome & Principe.
• Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing annual urbanization rates exceeding 4%, including Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=11-stability

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=11-stability.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=11-stability |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA CURRENT PATH: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=01-africas-current-path&topic=11-stability}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }