AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.

• Africa's industrialisation progress has been disappointing, with the share of manufacturing value added in the continent's GDP remaining under 13% since 2020. This has led to concerns regarding premature deindustrialisation, as the continent's share of global manufacturing fell from approximately 3% in the 1970s to less than 2% in 2023. In 2023, only five countries—Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco—recorded a manufacturing value added exceeding US$10 billion.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, is viewed as a key mechanism to overcome small domestic markets and create economies of scale. UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) estimates suggest that successful implementation could increase intra-African trade by 45% and the continent's combined GDP by US$141 billion by 2045.
• African nations are attempting to leapfrog traditional industrial stages by integrating digital manufacturing—including AI, 3D printing, and automation—and green industrialisation practices. This shift was highlighted during Africa’s Industrialisation Week 2024, which focused on "Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Green Industrialisation."
• Investment in infrastructure and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) is being used to attract foreign investment and move up the value chain. Examples include Ethiopia's government-led industrial parks for textiles, Nigeria's Lekki Deep Sea Port (opened in 2023), and the Musompo SEZ in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which broke ground in March 2025 to produce batteries and electric vehicles in partnership with Zambia.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }