AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

The report examines the state of manufacturing in Africa, noting that the continent's share of global manufacturing output fell to less than 2% by 2023. It highlights a trend of premature deindustrialisation, where economies shift to services before establishing a robust industrial base. To counter this, the document identifies key drivers for growth, including the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), green industrialisation, and the adoption of digital manufacturing technologies like AI and 3D printing. It also details specific infrastructure projects, such as the Musompo SEZ in the DR Congo, aimed at moving the continent up the value chain from raw mineral export to high-value production.

• Africa has experienced a decline in its global manufacturing presence, with its share of global output dropping from approximately 3% in the 1970s to under 2% in 2023. The continent's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP has remained below 13% since 2020, leading to concerns regarding premature deindustrialisation.
• Manufacturing capacity in Africa is concentrated in a few countries and low-technology sectors. In 2023, only Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco had manufacturing value added exceeding US$10 billion, with most industry focused on products such as textiles, clothing, food, beverages, and wood.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, is expected to mitigate the limitations of small domestic markets. Projections from the UN Economic Commission for Africa suggest that successful implementation could increase intra-African trade by 45% and the continent's combined GDP by US$141 billion by 2045.
• African nations are pursuing 'green industrialisation' and digital transformation to bypass traditional industrial stages. This includes integrating AI, automation, and 3D printing, as well as investing in renewable energy and circular economy models to ensure sustainable growth.
• Strategic infrastructure and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are being used to move Africa up the global value chain. Examples include Ethiopia's industrial parks for light manufacturing, Nigeria's Lekki Deep Sea Port (which handled 25% of the country's container traffic in 2023), and the Musompo SEZ in the DR Congo, which broke ground in March 2025 to produce batteries and electric vehicles.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }