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The research evaluates the impact of AI on the detectability of SSBNs, finding that AI enhancements are most effective in shallow waters (0-200 ft). This creates asymmetric strategic risks: the US enjoys a geographic advantage with direct deep-water access, while Russia and China's reliance on 'bastion' strategies is reinforced by AI's ability to secure shallow perimeters. The UK and France are identified as particularly vulnerable during the transit phase from port to deep ocean. While AI improves the 'Search' and 'Classify' phases of the detection chain, the authors conclude that fundamental physics and the cost asymmetry between seeking and hiding prevent the realization of 'transparent oceans,' though the perception of such a shift could destabilize nuclear strategic stability.

The report examines how climate hazards—including sea-level rise, extreme heat, and flooding—threaten Indonesia's military infrastructure, food security, and territorial sovereignty. It highlights the strategic risks of continued coal dependence, such as public health crises and corruption, while positioning the renewable energy transition as a critical national security priority to enhance economic competitiveness and geopolitical stability.

The report argues that Japan's continued reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), as outlined in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, creates significant geopolitical security risks and threatens its 2050 net-zero target. It recommends a five-step acceleration of decarbonisation, focusing on grid modernisation, domestic renewable energy expansion, and methane abatement in the LNG supply chain.

The Philippines is pursuing digital transformation to drive economic growth, with its digital economy contributing 8.5% to GDP in 2024. However, the country lags behind ASEAN peers in infrastructure and digital literacy. This gap has been filled largely by Chinese investments via the Digital Silk Road, with companies like Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent dominating sectors such as telecommunications, cloud computing, and fintech. While these investments provide essential capacity, they create security risks and sovereignty concerns, exacerbated by territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The paper recommends that the Philippines update its regulatory frameworks, adopt ASEAN-centric ICT norms, and pursue 'friendshoring' with allies like the US and Japan to reduce dependence on Chinese technology.

The research paper examines the gap between constitutional human rights declarations and actual implementation within BRICS nations. It argues that the organisation, now expanded to include several non-democratic states, may function as a shield for autocratic regimes to avoid Western-led human rights sanctions while pursuing economic and geopolitical influence. The author highlights systemic violations across member states, including democratic backsliding in Brazil and India, war crimes in Russia, state-sponsored forced labour in China, and systemic corruption and xenophobia in South Africa, concluding that BRICS members often instrumentalise human rights rhetoric to assert regional dominance.

The report examines the rise of 'algorithmic warfare,' characterized by the fusion of AI with small satellites, robotic systems, and mobile devices. It analyzes how AI enhances the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) and situational awareness while warning of critical vulnerabilities such as 'brittleness,' lack of explainability, and the risks of relying on private-sector partnerships. The authors argue that ethical AI deployment is not only a moral necessity but a strategic advantage.

The document analyzes the 'structural disjuncture' between the European Union's bilateral approach to international relations and the BRICS bloc's pursuit of an inclusive, South-South multilateral model. It argues that BRICS challenges the EU's historical hegemony in global governance, economic power, and trade policies. While the Russia-Ukraine war has further polarized the EU and BRICS, the author suggests opportunities for cooperation on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and the energy transition.

The report identifies three primary categories of climate security vulnerabilities for China: direct risks to military and critical infrastructure, compounding risks to internal political stability, and external risks that amplify regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It notes that while China is investing heavily in hard infrastructure adaptation and disaster response, political incentives and a lack of societal trust may undermine these efforts. The document recommends that the US government improve its predictive data on China's physical risks, use forecasting tools like wargaming, and prioritize climate resilience funding for Indo-Pacific allies to counter Chinese influence.

The report examines the security implications of climate change in the South and East China Seas, focusing on the interplay between regional political cohesion and food prices. It presents four scenarios—ranging from high cooperation and low prices to high fragmentation and food insecurity—to illustrate potential risks, including social unrest, the failure of governance, and increased Chinese maritime aggression. The analysis emphasizes that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions and socio-economic inequalities in Southeast and East Asia.

The authors argue that the seizure of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and threats to the Chernobyl site demonstrate the extreme dangers of nuclear facilities in conflict zones. They suggest the United States must develop a strategy to provide alternatives to Russian nuclear exports, monitor how these events affect global public perception of nuclear energy's role in climate mitigation, and adopt a more holistic approach to risk assessment that incorporates extreme climate projections and converging security threats.

The document analyzes the security relationship between the Philippines and China under the Duterte administration (2016–2020). It finds that while President Duterte pursued a cooperative foreign policy to secure economic gains and infrastructure funding via the Belt and Road Initiative, security cooperation remained limited and cautious. China provided military aid during the 2017 Marawi siege and proposed surveillance projects like 'Safe Philippines,' but these efforts faced pushback from the Philippine strategic community due to interoperability issues with US systems and fears of espionage. Ultimately, China is characterized as both an emerging security partner and a primary source of insecurity due to its maritime claims in the South China Sea.

The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) examines how climate change and nuclear trends—including the expansion of civil nuclear energy and the modernization of nuclear arsenals—interact to reshape the international order. The briefing highlights specific regional vulnerabilities, such as water stress in South Asia and sea-level rise affecting nuclear sites in Egypt and Nigeria. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the U.S. government, including the creation of a National Security Council director for the climate-nuclear-security nexus and the elimination of low-yield nuclear weapons to restore international trust.

The document analyzes how environmental degradation, the pursuit of civilian nuclear power, and geopolitical tensions—primarily involving China—intersect to create instability in the South China Sea region. It highlights the vulnerability of Indonesia and the Philippines to sea-level rise and extreme weather, their efforts to establish nuclear energy frameworks via IAEA guidance, and the internal threat posed by ISIL-affiliated extremists. The report argues that these converging risks, combined with hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China, threaten regional stability.

The document examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change concurrently degrade the readiness of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). It highlights the financial and operational strain caused by severe weather, specifically citing the $3.6 billion in damages to Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune from Hurricane Florence. The author contends that the DoD should apply the same decisive adaptation strategies used to combat COVID-19 to mitigate long-term climate risks, such as recurrent flooding and wildfires, to ensure national security and deter adversaries.

The document analyzes how ecological challenges, such as severe droughts and storms, exacerbate social instability and violent conflict in Mindanao, Philippines. It highlights the displacement of millions due to both climate events and conflict, which creates opportunities for terrorist groups like ISIS to establish footholds. The text emphasizes the geostrategic importance of the region to the United States and recommends that U.S. policy support water-related programs and collaborative governance to build climate resilience and promote peace.

The report analyzes the volatility of the South China Sea, focusing on the legal battle between the Philippines and China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration. It explores the strategic rivalry between the US and China, the difficulties of joint resource development, and the potential for ecosystem-based governance. The EU maintains a position of 'principled neutrality,' advocating for UNCLOS and the rule of law to ensure regional stability and freedom of navigation.

The report examines the 'peace potential' of oil and gas resources, analyzing how joint development, revenue sharing, and infrastructure projects like pipelines can either mitigate or fuel conflict. It contrasts successful cooperation, such as the Saudi-Kuwaiti Partitioned Neutral Zone and Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish relations, with failures in the Caucasus and disputes in the South China Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. The study also addresses the role of international environmental law and the climate impact of transitioning from coal to natural gas.

The report argues that China's pursuit of high GDP growth has led to severe environmental degradation, which in turn triggers internal security risks such as violent protests and mass migration. Internationally, China's need to secure energy, water, and timber resources drives an assertive foreign policy, leading to territorial disputes and the 'export' of environmental degradation to trading partners. The document highlights critical scarcity in water and energy, deteriorating air quality contributing to the 'Asian Brown Cloud', and the impact of domestic logging bans on international timber trade.

International public adaptation finance for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) averaged just over $2 billion annually in 2021–2022, representing only 0.2% of global climate finance. This is significantly below the estimated annual need of $11.7 billion required between 2023 and 2035. The report highlights a critical reliance on debt, which accounted for 44% of flows, and a lack of correlation between finance volumes and climate vulnerability. It advocates for replacing ODA eligibility criteria with a multidimensional vulnerability index to improve access to concessional funding.

The document defines climate change as a "threat multiplier" that creates direct risks to critical infrastructure and indirect risks by stressing resources like food, water, and energy. It argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole cause of war, it increases the likelihood of conflict in unstable regions. The guide details the specific impacts on military readiness, operations, and strategy, and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive risk management approach combining adaptation and mitigation.