Growing into Risk

The report argues that China's pursuit of high GDP growth has led to severe environmental degradation, which in turn triggers internal security risks such as violent protests and mass migration. Internationally, China's need to secure energy, water, and timber resources drives an assertive foreign policy, leading to territorial disputes and the 'export' of environmental degradation to trading partners. The document highlights critical scarcity in water and energy, deteriorating air quality contributing to the 'Asian Brown Cloud', and the impact of domestic logging bans on international timber trade.

• Environmental degradation in China is a primary driver of social instability, with environmental protest identified as one of the four most serious sources of social unrest in the country.
• China's rapid economic growth has caused severe pollution; six of the world's ten most polluted cities were in China by 2002, and 86% of urban water is unsuitable for drinking or fishing.
• Resource scarcity and land degradation have caused significant population displacement, with 20 to 30 million people displaced in the 1990s, and an estimated 30 to 40 million more expected to migrate over the next decade.
• China's energy security strategy involves maximizing domestic output and investing in overseas resources, which has led to an assertive foreign policy and territorial disputes, such as the development of the Chunxiao gas field in a Japanese-claimed exclusive economic zone.
• Freshwater scarcity is acute, with per capita resources at 2,210m3, roughly a quarter of the world average. This has led to over 120,000 reported water quantity conflicts between 1990 and 2002.
• Air pollution, largely driven by a reliance on coal for 70% of energy needs, causes approximately 300,000 premature deaths annually and contributes to the 'Asian Brown Cloud' that affects weather patterns across the Indian subcontinent.
• Domestic logging bans under the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) and Slope Land Conversion Program (SLCP) have shifted China's timber demand abroad, potentially increasing illegal logging and conflict in trading partner nations.
• The central government's focus on GDP growth often overrides environmental regulations, as local officials are pressured to deliver economic results and may corruptly shield polluters.

APA

Crawford, A., Brown, O., & Yang, V. (2006). Growing into Risk. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/tas_growing_risk.pdf

Chicago

Crawford, Alec, Oli Brown, and Van Yang. Growing into Risk. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2006. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/tas_growing_risk.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Crawford |first1=Alec |last2=Brown |first2=Oli |last3=Yang |first3=Van |title=Growing into Risk |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2006 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/tas_growing_risk.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{crawford2006growing, author = {Crawford, Alec and Brown, Oli and Yang, Van}, title = {{Growing into Risk}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2006}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/tas_growing_risk.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }