China’s Climate Security Vulnerabilities

The report identifies three primary categories of climate security vulnerabilities for China: direct risks to military and critical infrastructure, compounding risks to internal political stability, and external risks that amplify regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It notes that while China is investing heavily in hard infrastructure adaptation and disaster response, political incentives and a lack of societal trust may undermine these efforts. The document recommends that the US government improve its predictive data on China's physical risks, use forecasting tools like wargaming, and prioritize climate resilience funding for Indo-Pacific allies to counter Chinese influence.

• Climate change poses direct threats to Chinese military and critical infrastructure, including artificial islands in the South China Sea, where the destruction of coral reefs has removed buffers against storm damage and sea level rise.
• Permafrost thaw threatens essential national security projects, specifically the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and oil and gas pipelines connecting China to Russia, such as the 'Power of Siberia' and the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline.
• Major economic hubs in the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas are highly vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise; some shipyards producing military vessels are projected to be underwater by 2060 under high emissions scenarios.
• Climate change threatens domestic stability by undermining food and water security, which may be particularly volatile in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet where political marginalization of populations increases vulnerability.
• Environmental stressors are amplifying geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific, specifically regarding water control of the Mekong River and glacial melt along the Line of Actual Control between China and India.
• China is leveraging climate adaptation and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) as a tool for soft power and strategic access, notably through the Belt and Road Initiative and security agreements with Pacific island nations like the Solomon Islands.
• There is a tension in China between technical competence in adaptation and political incentives, where local officials may suppress bad news or prioritize short-term GDP growth over long-term climate planning.

APA

Sikorsky, E. (2022). China’s Climate Security Vulnerabilities. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/China-Climate-Security-Vulnerabilities-2022.pdf

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin. China’s Climate Security Vulnerabilities. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/China-Climate-Security-Vulnerabilities-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |title=China’s Climate Security Vulnerabilities |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=November 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/China-Climate-Security-Vulnerabilities-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2022chinas, author = {Sikorsky, Erin}, title = {{China’s Climate Security Vulnerabilities}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/China-Climate-Security-Vulnerabilities-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }