Climate & Nuclear Security in the South China Sea: The Cases of Indonesia and the Philippines

The document analyzes how environmental degradation, the pursuit of civilian nuclear power, and geopolitical tensions—primarily involving China—intersect to create instability in the South China Sea region. It highlights the vulnerability of Indonesia and the Philippines to sea-level rise and extreme weather, their efforts to establish nuclear energy frameworks via IAEA guidance, and the internal threat posed by ISIL-affiliated extremists. The report argues that these converging risks, combined with hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China, threaten regional stability.

• Indonesia and the Philippines are pursuing civilian nuclear energy to meet growing demand, though they face significant technical and safety hurdles. The Philippines is considering reviving the Bataan nuclear energy plant, despite Russian assessments that the technology is "absolutely outdated", while Indonesia is exploring a 500MW floating thorium reactor with a projected operational date of 2040.
• Climate change poses existential threats to the region, with sea-level rise in Southeast Asia projected to be at least 10% higher than the global mean by the end of the century. This environmental shift is expected to drive fish stocks poleward, potentially increasing conflict as fishing fleets enter contested waters.
• Geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea are driven by China's 'Nine-Dash Line' claims, which ignore the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of neighboring states. This has resulted in physical skirmishes, including the sinking of Philippine and Vietnamese fishing vessels by Chinese ships in 2019 and 2020.
• Internal security is compromised by the re-emergence of ISIL-affiliated groups, with the Philippines serving as a regional center for these militants. The presence of such non-state actors creates a critical security risk for the management of nuclear sites, fuel, and waste.
• Severe land subsidence and rising seas have forced Indonesia to plan a $33 billion relocation of its capital from Jakarta to Borneo.

APA

Rezzonico, A., & Cavallo, C. (2020). Climate & Nuclear Security in the South China Sea: The Cases of Indonesia and the Philippines. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Climate-and-Nuclear-Security-in-the-South-China-Sea_The-Cases-of-Indonesia-and-the-Phillipines_BRIEFER-8_2020_6_30.pdf

Chicago

Rezzonico, Andrea, and Christine Cavallo. Climate & Nuclear Security in the South China Sea: The Cases of Indonesia and the Philippines. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Climate-and-Nuclear-Security-in-the-South-China-Sea_The-Cases-of-Indonesia-and-the-Phillipines_BRIEFER-8_2020_6_30.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rezzonico |first1=Andrea |last2=Cavallo |first2=Christine |title=Climate & Nuclear Security in the South China Sea: The Cases of Indonesia and the Philippines |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=30 June 2020 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Climate-and-Nuclear-Security-in-the-South-China-Sea_The-Cases-of-Indonesia-and-the-Phillipines_BRIEFER-8_2020_6_30.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rezzonico2020climate, author = {Rezzonico, Andrea and Cavallo, Christine}, title = {{Climate \& Nuclear Security in the South China Sea: The Cases of Indonesia and the Philippines}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Climate-and-Nuclear-Security-in-the-South-China-Sea_The-Cases-of-Indonesia-and-the-Phillipines_BRIEFER-8_2020_6_30.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }