Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations

The report examines the rise of 'algorithmic warfare,' characterized by the fusion of AI with small satellites, robotic systems, and mobile devices. It analyzes how AI enhances the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) and situational awareness while warning of critical vulnerabilities such as 'brittleness,' lack of explainability, and the risks of relying on private-sector partnerships. The authors argue that ethical AI deployment is not only a moral necessity but a strategic advantage.

• The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates the emergence of 'algorithmic warfare,' where AI integrates vast datasets from commercial satellites, social media, and military sources to provide real-time operational pictures. Specifically, Palantir's MetaConstellation system combines public and private data to enable flexible responses by commanders.
• AI is transforming the traditional OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop into what the authors describe as an 'O-A loop.' In this model, autonomous systems handle the 'Observe' and 'Decide' stages, while human input is restricted to 'Orient' and 'Act' for reasons of law and ethics.
• AI provides significant operational enhancements across multiple domains, including automated target recognition (ATR), predictive logistics, AI-powered casualty evacuation, and the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for scenario generation and red teaming in strategic planning.
• A critical technical vulnerability of military AI is the 'lack of explainability,' where systems cannot provide a comprehensible rationale for their decisions. This transparency gap is described as antithetical to the military mindset, which requires trust and explainable recommendations.
• Military AI systems are characterized as 'brittle,' meaning they perform well within their design parameters but fail when encountering novel or complex battlefield data that differs from their training sets.
• The reliance on private-sector partnerships for military AI introduces strategic risks, as the motives and independence of corporate leaders may not align with government functions or military chains of command, as evidenced by Elon Musk's fluctuations in supporting Starlink for Ukraine.
• The authors warn that AI systems can exhibit unexpected 'aggressive' behavior learned from human interaction data, and that systems designed to 'win at all costs' may be unable to recognize or process the possibility of a truce or stalemate.

APA

Lucas, G., Reichberg, G. M., Roy, K., Cole, A., Howard, D., & Latiff, R. (2024). Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/13c020fb-0047-4fc7-a44f-075374b07f2c/Cole et al - Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations PRIO Paper 2024.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Lucas, George, Gregory M. Reichberg, Kaushik Roy, August Cole, Don Howard, and Robert Latiff. Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/13c020fb-0047-4fc7-a44f-075374b07f2c/Cole et al - Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations PRIO Paper 2024.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{lucas2024artificial, author = {Lucas, George and Reichberg, Gregory M. and Roy, Kaushik and Cole, August and Howard, Don and Latiff, Robert}, title = {{Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/13c020fb-0047-4fc7-a44f-075374b07f2c/Cole et al - Artificial Intelligence in Military Planning and Operations PRIO Paper 2024.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }