The Peace Potential of Hydrocarbon Resources

The report examines the 'peace potential' of oil and gas resources, analyzing how joint development, revenue sharing, and infrastructure projects like pipelines can either mitigate or fuel conflict. It contrasts successful cooperation, such as the Saudi-Kuwaiti Partitioned Neutral Zone and Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish relations, with failures in the Caucasus and disputes in the South China Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. The study also addresses the role of international environmental law and the climate impact of transitioning from coal to natural gas.

• Joint Development Zones (JDZs) are most effective when established alongside a boundary agreement; using them as a substitute for maritime delimitation in disputed areas is often problematic and can discourage serious investment.
• The 'peace pipeline' concept—the idea that shared infrastructure creates economic interdependence to prevent conflict—lacks clear empirical evidence of effectiveness, as these relationships are often asymmetrical and can be exploited by the stronger party.
• Equitable revenue sharing is a critical factor for sustainable peace, but its success is often hindered by corruption and the failure to manage the inflated expectations of local populations.
• The 1965 agreement between the UK and Norway established a 'rule of cooperation' for cross-border petroleum deposits, treating straddling fields as single resources to be shared proportionally, which served as a benchmark for international legal frameworks.
• In the East and South China Seas, hydrocarbon reserves are often exaggerated, and the primary key to energy security is the safety of navigation rather than the extraction of disputed resources.
• In the Caucasus, oil and gas development failed to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and instead empowered the Azerbaijani regime to increase military spending and maintain a despotic state.
• The Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is a successful model of shared development, initiated by international oil companies and maintained through mutual trust and joint operating committees.
• While replacing coal with natural gas in the electric power sector can reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the benefit is partially offset by methane leaks during production and transport, as methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas.
• International environmental law establishes that while states have sovereign rights to exploit their resources, they have a positive obligation to ensure sustainable use and must not cause irreparable damage to other states' territories.

APA

Tønnesson, S., Rettig, E., Rustad, S. C. A., Andersen, L. E., Tzimitras, H., Ulrichsen, K. C., Baev, P., Le Cornu, L., Gehring, M. W., & Kaufmann, R. K. (2014). The Peace Potential of Hydrocarbon Resources. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0f88b1ba-7f00-4ec1-91a1-f8b9b0b44791/Hydrocarbon PRE Scoping Study 6.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tønnesson, Stein, Elai Rettig, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad, Lars Even Andersen, Harry Tzimitras, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Pavel Baev, et al. The Peace Potential of Hydrocarbon Resources. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2014. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0f88b1ba-7f00-4ec1-91a1-f8b9b0b44791/Hydrocarbon PRE Scoping Study 6.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{tnnesson2014peace, author = {Tønnesson, Stein and Rettig, Elai and Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas and Andersen, Lars Even and Tzimitras, Harry and Ulrichsen, Kristian Coates and Baev, Pavel and Le Cornu, Laura and Gehring, Markus W. and Kaufmann, Robert K.}, title = {{The Peace Potential of Hydrocarbon Resources}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2014}, month = sep, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0f88b1ba-7f00-4ec1-91a1-f8b9b0b44791/Hydrocarbon PRE Scoping Study 6.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }