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In 2025, clean power met all global electricity demand growth for the first time since the pandemic, as China's fossil generation plateaued. Solar power is the primary driver of this shift, and the deployment of battery storage is increasingly enabling solar to displace fossil fuels during non-daylight hours. India is expected to follow a less coal-reliant path than China due to lower energy intensity and the maturity of low-cost clean technologies.

In 2025, global electricity generation saw a significant shift toward low-carbon sources, with solar and wind reaching a combined 17.3% share of total generation. Solar was the fastest-growing source, adding 636 TWh and meeting 75% of global demand growth. Conversely, coal's share of global electricity fell below one-third for the first time on record to 33.0%, and renewable generation exceeded coal generation for the first time. Low-carbon sources (including nuclear) reached 42.6% of total generation, while the emissions intensity of electricity dropped by 2.7% in 2025, the largest annual decline in two decades.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the power sectors of seven major countries and regions in 2025, which collectively represent 72% of global electricity demand. Key trends include China's unprecedented solar growth and first absolute decline in power sector emissions since 2015, the US seeing wind and solar overtake nuclear power for the first time, and the EU's wind and solar generation exceeding fossil generation. India saw renewable growth double its demand increase, while Brazil maintained one of the cleanest systems globally with 87% renewable generation. Conversely, Russia and Japan continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, with Russia's wind and solar remaining marginal at less than 1% of its mix.

In 2025, global electricity demand grew by 2.8% (849 TWh), all of which was met by low-carbon power generation, leading to a 0.2% decline in fossil fuel generation. Solar power was the primary driver, increasing by a record 636 TWh (30%) and meeting 75% of the net demand increase. For the first time in the modern era, renewables (33.8%) overtook coal (33.0%) in the global electricity mix. This shift was led by China and India, both of which saw declines in fossil generation in 2025. Additionally, battery storage is scaling rapidly, with costs falling 45% in 2025, enabling the shift of daytime solar generation to other hours.

The document analyzes the stagnation of African agricultural productivity, attributing it to historical factors like slavery, colonialism, and a lack of tenure reform. It contrasts a 'Current Path' forecast—characterized by increasing food import dependence and low yields—with an 'Agriculture scenario' where targeted interventions in AgTech, irrigation, and soil health lead to significant poverty reduction and GDP growth. The report emphasizes the need for food self-sufficiency and value addition within Africa over a reliance on raw commodity exports.

The research paper examines the failure of Zimbabwe's land redistribution programme and 'command agriculture' policies, noting that these actions destroyed the country's most productive sector. It highlights a transition from being a net food exporter before 1990 to importing nearly 22% of total food demand by 2019, while extreme poverty rose from 10% in 2000 to 37% in 2020.

The report outlines a strategic framework for transforming African education, emphasizing a shift from rote learning to a system that integrates digital skills, vocational training, and foundational literacy. It argues that while education is strongly linked to income, growth requires the ability to apply knowledge through 'learning by doing'. The authors recommend a systematic approach to the 'education funnel', starting with early childhood development and progressing through tertiary education, supported by innovative financing and public-private partnerships to reduce the cost of digital connectivity.

The research paper analyzes historical agricultural transformations in China, Brazil, and Egypt, highlighting the roles of institutional incentives, genetic seed tailoring, and targeted infrastructure investments in increasing yields and food security.

The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

The document identifies a critical mismatch between World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and climate objectives, noting that existing trade frameworks do not recognize emissions as an organizing criterion and that intellectual property laws under the TRIPS Agreement hinder the diffusion of green technologies. It highlights a governance gap where climate-trade issues fall between the market-access focus of the WTO and the emissions-reduction focus of the UNFCCC, often leading to unilateral measures like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Additionally, the report notes a knowledge gap regarding the distributional impacts of trade-climate measures on least developed and commodity-dependent countries, particularly in Africa where emissions measurements in land use and agriculture are uncertain. To ensure a just transition, the authors advocate for a multilateral approach that prioritizes development, structural transformation, and the treatment of climate technologies as global public goods.

The document analyzes the strategic interests of the EU and Indonesia in Africa's critical raw materials sector, arguing that their differing strengths—the EU's financial and regulatory capacity and Indonesia's downstream industrialisation experience—could be combined through triangular cooperation to support African development and reduce mutual dependence on China.

The report analyzes the 'twin fossil shocks' of the 2020s—the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—comparing them to the 1970s oil crises. It contends that unlike the 1970s, today's energy transition is driven by 'electrotech' (solar, wind, batteries, and EVs) that is cheaper, faster to deploy, and more secure than fossil fuels. The authors suggest these shocks will accelerate the absolute peak of fossil fuel demand, particularly by pushing LNG out of power generation and oil out of road transport, especially in Asia. The document concludes with policy recommendations to prioritize electrification and remove fossil fuel subsidies to end fuel dependency.

After a record year in 2024, the U.S. EV market experienced a 4% sales decline in 2025, driven by the expiration of federal tax credits and a volatile regulatory environment. While charging infrastructure continues to grow through private investment, nearly $20 billion in manufacturing projects have been canceled, particularly in the Midwest and South. Major automakers are shifting strategies toward hybrids and affordable models to mitigate losses, while workers face increased layoffs and production pauses. Despite these setbacks, long-term forecasts from BloombergNEF and the IEA suggest continued, albeit slower, EV adoption through 2030.

The authors argue that Europe risks missing a strategic window to lead in geothermal energy due to insufficient political support and financial risks. They claim next-generation geothermal systems could generate 301 TWh of electricity annually in the EU, roughly 42% of current coal- and gas-fired generation. To unlock this, the letter calls for a dedicated EU geothermal de-risking facility for drilling, long-term revenue frameworks like two-way CfDs, streamlined permitting, and the creation of a European Geothermal Industry Alliance.

The 2026 Middle East crisis, triggered by conflict in Iran, caused a spike in oil and gas prices and led some Southeast Asian nations to switch from gas to coal for electricity. However, the report argues that coal is not insulated from geopolitical shocks and carries high hidden health and climate costs. Analysis shows that replacing planned gas expansion with solar and storage would save ASEAN USD 4 billion by 2030, whereas replacing it with coal would increase costs. Despite this, ASEAN coal demand is projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven largely by Indonesia and Vietnam, though Indonesia has committed to phasing out fossil fuels within 10 to 15 years.

The World Resources Institute argues that introducing a 'no-risk' category to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) would undermine the law's effectiveness by creating loopholes for 'deforestation laundering' and risking World Trade Organization (WTO) legal challenges. The author contends that the current system, which includes a 'low-risk' category for countries like the United States and EU Member States, is sufficient and that removing due diligence requirements for 'no-risk' countries would make it 'effectively impossible' to prevent deforestation-linked goods from entering the EU market. The document emphasizes that the EUDR, set to take effect in December 2026, must maintain its core requirements for seven key commodities—timber, cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, and soy—to meet the EU's goal of halting forest loss by 2030.

The report forecasts that Africa's energy demand will rise significantly due to population growth and economic expansion, with the 'Combined scenario' projecting demand 26% above the 'Current Path' by 2050. While production is expected to increase—particularly through renewables—demand will still outpace supply, increasing reliance on energy imports. Despite a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, Africa's share of global CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil fuels is projected to rise to 10.4% by 2050 in the Combined scenario.

The paper argues for a rapid increase in non-fossil energy production to mitigate climate vulnerability in Africa. It highlights the potential for renewables to reach 750 GW by 2030 and the role of nuclear and hydropower, while noting that fossil fuel sectors remain primary drivers of foreign direct investment. The authors model an 'Energy Policy scenario' for 2050 that increases production across solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro, potentially reducing the number of Africans without electricity by 184 million.

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

The report examines the 'electrotech fast-track' for 74 Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) nations, arguing that rapid cost declines in solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies allow these countries to bypass the 'fossil detour'. It highlights that 46% of CVF nations, by electricity demand, have already surpassed the US in solar penetration. The document details how solar is now less capital-intensive than fossil fuels and how decentralized solar-battery systems are becoming cheaper than grid extension for remote areas. It further argues that transitioning to electrotech reduces the $155 billion annual fossil fuel import drain and leverages CVF nations' strategic assets in critical minerals and manufacturing to gain geopolitical influence.