The New Twin Fossil Shock

The research paper 'The New Twin Fossil Shock' analyzes how two major energy crises in the 2020s—the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2026 shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—are accelerating the global transition to an 'electric age.' The authors argue that unlike the oil shocks of the 1970s, current alternatives such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs) are cost-competitive, scalable, and provide a permanent route out of fossil fuel dependency.

• The 2026 shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, beginning February 28, represents the largest oil supply disruption on record, removing more than ten million barrels a day—double the impact of the 1973 and 1979 shocks.
• Modern 'electrotech' is superior to the alternatives available during the 1970s because it is cheaper, faster to deploy, and more secure. For example, solar plus storage costs below $60 per MWh globally, while LNG-fired power in Asia can exceed $160 per MWh.
• The transition to electric vehicles is rapidly disrupting the transport sector, particularly in China where EVs accounted for half of car sales in 2025. In 2025, global EV sales grew 20% to represent one in four car sales.
• The 2026 shock is felt most acutely in Asia, where over 40% of the region's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading Asia to abandon fossil fuel demand growth in favor of domestic electrotech.
• Absolute peak fossil fuel demand is likely already achieved, as OECD demand peaked in 2007, industrial use plateaued in 2014, building use in 2018, and road transport in 2019.
• The authors recommend four priorities for 'shockproofing' energy systems: removing fossil fuel subsidies (which totaled over $900 billion in 2024), prioritizing end-use electrification, lowering electricity prices relative to gas, and creating new institutions to end fuel dependency.

APA

Broadbent, H., Bruce-Lockhart, C., & Terry, E. (2026). The New Twin Fossil Shock. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock

Chicago

Broadbent, Hannah, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, and Eli Terry. The New Twin Fossil Shock. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Broadbent |first1=Hannah |last2=Bruce-Lockhart |first2=Chelsea |last3=Terry |first3=Eli |title=The New Twin Fossil Shock |publisher=Ember |date=14 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{broadbent2026new, author = {Broadbent, Hannah and Bruce-Lockhart, Chelsea and Terry, Eli}, title = {{The New Twin Fossil Shock}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }