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The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

The report examines the 'temporal scope' of the Nagoya Protocol, specifically whether access and benefit-sharing (ABS) obligations are triggered by the initial physical access to genetic resources (GRs) and traditional knowledge (TK) or by their subsequent utilisation. It argues that the European Commission's draft proposal, which limits obligations to resources accessed after the Protocol's entry into force, contradicts the ABS laws of many provider countries (such as Ethiopia, India, and South Africa) where utilisation is the trigger. The authors contend that this discrepancy will lead to legal uncertainty for EU users, who may be compliant with EU law but liable for criminal charges in provider countries, and will disincentivise provider countries from facilitating access to their biodiversity.

The document describes a planned conference, 'The APRM +10: Reviewing a Decade of Peer Learning and Projecting a Future of Governance in Africa', to be held in Addis Ababa in May 2013. It seeks to evaluate the APRM's progress since its 2003 establishment, specifically focusing on the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs) and the role of civil society in holding member states accountable. The briefing highlights the tension between the voluntary nature of the APRM and the compulsory nature of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), while calling for better synergies between the APRM and other AU organs, such as the Pan African Parliament and the Peace and Security Commission.

The document advocates for a multi-scale analysis of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus to improve cooperative governance and resource management. It presents a continuum of assessment tools, ranging from qualitative index building and opportunity analysis to quantitative hydro-economic and integrated modelling (such as WEAP and LEAP). These tools are designed to identify trade-offs, mitigate supply bottlenecks, and support sustainable infrastructure planning in transboundary macro-regions and at the local level.

The document analyzes the reliance of Ethiopian households on traditional biomass, which accounts for approximately 90% of total primary energy use. Using the LEAP model, it compares a baseline scenario with 'moderate shift' and 'high shift' scenarios. The findings indicate that transitioning to improved cookstoves and electricity could reduce biomass demand by 53% to 67% compared to the baseline by 2030, while contributing significantly to national GHG reduction targets.

The document argues that sustainable governance of water, energy, and food requires an integrated nexus approach to reduce trade-offs and generate co-benefits. Using a scoping study of 85 organizations in Ethiopia's Tana and Beles basins, it demonstrates that social network analysis can identify the formal and informal relationships necessary to move beyond siloed sectoral management. The findings reveal that while some connections exist, relationships largely follow administrative and sectoral boundaries, with stronger vertical ties than horizontal ones, hindering the coordinated decision-making required for comprehensive solutions.

The document examines the environmental and social challenges of transport in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the rise in urban air pollution, high road fatality rates, and increasing traffic congestion. It argues that current policies favor automobiles over vulnerable populations and recommends an 'avoid, shift, improve' strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve accessibility and safety for all citizens.

The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) argues that traditional cookstove projects often fail because they focus on installation numbers rather than sustainable market transformation. SEI advocates for a user-centered design approach, combining qualitative ethnographic data with quantitative choice experiments to understand the social, cultural, and economic drivers of energy decisions. The briefing highlights the need for business models that enable local replication and examines the role of carbon finance and innovative fuel sources, such as ethanol micro distilleries in Ethiopia, to reduce reliance on biomass.

The document details CDKN's support for Bangladesh in advancing the 'Loss and Damage' agenda within the UNFCCC, including the creation of case studies and training for officials. It also highlights the development of a participatory monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tool for community-based adaptation (CBA) by the ARCAB partnership, which has been scaled up to Somalia and Ethiopia. Additionally, it mentions research on climate-induced displacement in Bangladesh conducted by the University of Sussex and the University of Bangladesh.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate risks, particularly droughts and floods, which create a long-term fiscal liability estimated at 2.0 to 2.4 per cent of GDP annually. The report identifies critical dependencies in the agricultural, water, and energy sectors, noting that 98 per cent of crop production is rain-fed and over half of electricity is generated by hydropower. While the government has established frameworks like Vision 2030 and the National Climate Change Response Strategy, the report finds that disaster risk management remains largely reactive and uncoordinated, with significant capacity gaps at the subnational level. It recommends deeper research into sector-specific vulnerabilities, the 'climate proofing' of infrastructure and budgets, and the integration of gender-disaggregated data into planning.

The document argues that REDD+ safeguard information systems (SIS) do not necessarily require the creation of new mechanisms or indicators, as they can be built upon existing national and international reporting architectures. It highlights research conducted across eight existing systems and early actions in five specific countries to identify lessons for ensuring transparency, consistency, and accessibility in safeguard reporting.

The document provides updates on the political instability and foreign policy of Eritrea, including its relations with Ethiopia and Sudan, and reports on Kofi Annan's visit to Kenya to assess preparations for the March 2013 elections.

The briefing highlights that conventional conservation and economic growth models in Africa have often failed to protect ecosystems, which are vital for the livelihoods of the poor. It advocates for the use of market-based mechanisms, such as Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES), to quantify the value of nature's services and incentivize sustainable management over destructive land use. The author notes that African countries have largely failed to utilize ecosystem markets due to governance gaps, lack of technical knowledge, and disputes over land tenure, urging regional organizations to lead the integration of ecosystem services into mainstream economic planning.

The report highlights the systemic neglect of 200,000 to 400,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Kenya, who face severe vulnerability due to a combination of colonial legacies, violent conflict, human rights abuses, and climatic factors. It argues that while IDPs in other regions of Kenya received significant support following the 2007/08 post-election violence, pastoralist IDPs are largely unaccounted for and receive only inadequate, short-term humanitarian aid. The document calls for the adoption of a national IDP policy, ratification of the Kampala Convention, and a shift toward long-term security and development solutions.

The Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) project, running from January 2011 to January 2013 with a value of £184,250, aims to enhance the adaptive capacity of poor communities in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Uganda. The project has influenced national policies, produced 27 publications, and facilitated capacity building for government officials through field visits and training. Phase 2 of the project focuses on 'flexible and forward looking decision-making' and the evaluation of a tailored ACCRA game for district government contexts.

The report critiques 'sustainable intensification' as a productivist ideology that prioritizes high-tech solutions—specifically genetically modified (GM) crops and chemical inputs—over agro-ecological practices. It argues that this approach is driven by international donors and agribusinesses, often ignoring the expertise of small farmers and failing to deliver promised yield increases. The document contrasts this model with 'food sovereignty' and the recommendations of the IAASTD report, advocating for a shift toward agro-ecology, land rights, and the reduction of food waste and livestock consumption in the West.

The document highlights Ethiopia's significant investment in infrastructure, spending $1.3 billion annually (10% of GDP), with a focus on energy and transport. It notes that Ethiopia requires 8700 megawatts of generating plant over the next decade to double its capacity. While Kenya is often seen as the regional anchor, the author argues that Ethiopia's growth rates since 2005/06 and its strategic importance make it a potential regional powerhouse. However, Ethiopia faces fundamental business challenges including foreign currency regulations, inflation, and a lack of competitiveness in its manufacturing sector, which contributes less than 10 percent of total merchandise exports.

The briefing examines food insecurity in Africa, highlighting that sub-Saharan countries are the most food insecure globally. It discusses the role of the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), the G-8's New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, and the challenges posed by trade barriers and the Doha Round impasse. The authors argue that while trade is essential, it must be part of a comprehensive policy package including agricultural investment and financial innovation to ensure long-term food security.

The document argues that while a 'Green Revolution' focused solely on increasing crop yields and land cultivation could make Africa a net food exporter and boost GDP, it would not significantly reduce undernutrition because most production would be exported. To improve human development, the authors propose a 'Green Revolution for Development' that couples production increases with policies to stimulate domestic food demand and access, alongside improvements in water and sanitation.

The document outlines recommendations for designing REDD+ Safeguard Information Systems (SIS), emphasizing the need to harmonize reporting requirements across the UNFCCC and various funders to reduce complexity for developing countries. It suggests coordinating data collection with existing processes like the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Global Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) to avoid duplication. The authors advocate for country-driven, flexible systems supported by international guidance, financial aid, and capacity-building, while leveraging existing stakeholder groups to improve implementation.