Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 40

The document provides updates on the political instability and foreign policy of Eritrea, including its relations with Ethiopia and Sudan, and reports on Kofi Annan's visit to Kenya to assess preparations for the March 2013 elections.

• There are concerns that the incapacitation of President Isaias Afewerki, who has no obvious successor, could lead to a power vacuum and a military takeover in Eritrea, potentially resulting in an internal struggle for power and the rise of a politically weaker authoritarian leader.
• Eritrea's economy, crippled by a fall in remittances, is currently supported by gold revenues from the Bisha mine, operated by the Canadian company Nevsun Resources, which produced between 280,000 and 300,000 ounces of gold worth nearly US$150 million in 2012.
• The Eritrean military is suspected of engaging in contraband trade with Yemen and Sudan to generate hard currency; Sudanese authorities in Kassala State uncovered a smuggling operation involving approximately 80 vehicles, seizing 142,000 litres of fuel, 140 sacks of flour, and 12 sacks of wheat.
• Eritrea is suspected of supporting Ethiopian opposition elements to incite a popular uprising and may attempt to exploit a perceived leadership vacuum in Ethiopia's ruling party following the post-Meles transition.
• Kofi Annan visited Kenya as part of the AU Panel of Eminent African Personalities to assess electoral preparedness for the March 2013 elections, though his visit was viewed negatively by the Party of National Unity (PNU) due to perceived closeness to Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

APA

Zounmenou, D., Atta-Asamoah, A., Motsamai, D., Dzinesa, G. A., Kok, N., & Warries, T. (2012). Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 40. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_18_October.pdf

Chicago

Zounmenou, David, Andrew Atta-Asamoah, Dimpho Motsamai, Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa, Naomi Kok, and Tarryn Warries. Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 40. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_18_October.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |last2=Atta-Asamoah |first2=Andrew |last3=Motsamai |first3=Dimpho |last4=Dzinesa |first4=Gwinyayi A. |last5=Kok |first5=Naomi |last6=Warries |first6=Tarryn |title=Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 40 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=18 October 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_18_October.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2012conflict, author = {Zounmenou, David and Atta-Asamoah, Andrew and Motsamai, Dimpho and Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A. and Kok, Naomi and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) – Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 40}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CPRA_PDF_18_October.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }