Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries

The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

• Fragility is conceptualised as a mutually reinforcing system or 'syndrome' comprising four dimensions: poor or weak governance, high levels of conflict and violence, high levels of inequality and economic exclusion, and poverty.
• The base-case forecast suggests that 12 countries (Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Guinea, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) could exit the 'more fragile' category by 2030, with four more (Eritrea, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone) potentially doing so by 2050.
• Ten countries are forecast to remain in a 'fragility trap' beyond 2050: Comoros, the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, the Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Togo.
• A pessimistic scenario identifies climate change as a significant risk multiplier, potentially increasing local-level conflict over resources such as land, water, and grazing, and exacerbating food insecurity.
• The report identifies a 'democratic deficit' in fragile states, where political inclusion is lower than would be expected given their levels of education and economic growth, which increases the risk of instability.
• Extreme poverty is expected to widen in fragile states compared to more resilient ones; while the percentage of the population in extreme poverty declines in both groups, the absolute number of people living on less than $2 per day is forecast to increase in 'more fragile' states.
• The 'resource curse' is highlighted as a driver of fragility, where heavy dependence on commodity exports often leads to rent-seeking, corruption, and the capture of the state by elites, undermining democratic governance and the rule of law.
• To mitigate poverty and the resource curse, the report recommends that a large share of future oil and gas income be distributed as unconditional taxable cash transfers directly to citizens.
• The report argues that statebuilding in Africa is a 'compressed' process where security, capacity, and inclusion transitions occur simultaneously rather than sequentially, often relying on elite pacts rather than popular consent.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Sisk, T. D. (2013). Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono188.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Timothy D Sisk. Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono188.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Sisk |first2=Timothy D |title=Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono188.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2013assessing, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Sisk, Timothy D}, title = {{Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono188.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }