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The report argues that while Ghana has achieved middle-income status, its economic growth has not translated into broad development dividends due to persistent debt, corruption, and an untransformed agrarian structure. It outlines a path to increase GDP to US$365 billion by 2043 through aggressive export-led manufacturing, governance reforms, and targeted investments in health, education, and climate-smart agriculture. Key recommendations include phasing out fossil fuels in favour of solar and hydro energy, addressing energy sector debt, and implementing constitutional reforms to ensure legislative independence.

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.

The Demographics and Health Scenario explores the impact of targeted interventions in family planning, disease mortality reduction, water and sanitation (WaSH), and child nutrition across Africa. By 2050, the scenario aims to increase modern contraceptive use to 75% in sub-Saharan Africa and 85% in North Africa, while reducing mortality for the top five disease types in each country by 20 percentage points. It also projects an increase in sub-Saharan African average access to safely managed water and sanitation from 29% in 2025 to 61% by 2050. These health improvements are supported by a projected 5% increase in health spending, totaling an additional US$18.9 billion continentwide.

The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.

The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.

Africa's population is projected to grow from 1.552 billion in 2025 to 3.850 billion by 2100, representing 39% of the global population. This growth is driven by high total fertility rates and population momentum, which could position Africa as the world's largest potential labour force by 2040 if supported by education and health investments. Significant disparities persist in life expectancy and fertility rates across the continent, with some nations already below replacement levels while others remain very high.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.

The document describes Africa's physical geography, including its diverse climates and major river systems, and its political structure consisting of 54 sovereign states and the African Union. It highlights the continent's significant economic challenges, noting that it contains the highest proportion of the world's low-income countries, while also detailing its immense linguistic, ethnic, and religious diversity.

The report details specific multipliers and targets for Burundi across several development scenarios. Key interventions include improving government effectiveness, reducing child and maternal mortality, increasing vocational training, boosting agricultural yields, and expanding renewable energy and ICT infrastructure. The document compares these projected outcomes against averages for low-income African countries and historical benchmarks from other African nations.

The document examines 'technological leapfrogging' in Africa, focusing on how decentralised renewable energy, mobile finance, and artificial intelligence can overcome infrastructure deficits. It presents a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projecting significant GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while providing policy recommendations to address structural bottlenecks in skills, financing, and regulation.

As of 2022, 41.5% of Africa's population lacked electricity, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging significantly at 51.5% access. The document argues that traditional grid expansion is too slow and expensive for rural areas, proposing a 'leapfrog' strategy centered on solar-based off-grid and mini-grid solutions. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids costing approximately US$ 91 billion. Despite possessing 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa faces severe financing shortfalls, with clean energy finance growing by only 2.5% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2021 and 2022, compared to over 100% in Latin America. Barriers to deployment include high public debt, regulatory bottlenecks, and shifting geopolitical priorities, such as the end of the US Power Africa initiative.

The research paper argues that Africa's infrastructure deficit is a cumulative result of colonial-era designs focused on extraction, post-independence mismanagement, and the impact of 1980s debt crises and Structural Adjustment Programs. It notes that colonial railways shaped current urban locations and that recent investments have often focused on prestige projects or specific corridors funded by external partners like China.

The paper examines the role of technological leapfrogging in transitioning Africa's large informal economy into the formal sector. It highlights that in 2024, the informal sector accounted for 58% of the labour force and 27% of GDP, with projections suggesting a decline to 50% of the labour force and 24% of GDP by 2050. The author identifies digital ID systems as the critical first step for formalisation, noting that roughly half of the world's one billion people without official identification live in Africa. The document asserts that digitisation—including biometric IDs, mobile payment solutions, and PAYG models—can expand the tax base and improve access to credit and social protections without imposing heavy compliance costs on small-scale operators.

At the 2026 African Development Bank (AfDB) Annual Meetings, Recourse is calling for a shift in development finance to prioritise equitable renewable energy access and a just transition across Africa. The organisation demands a dedicated financing window for decentralised renewable energy (DRE), targeting at least 30% of energy access financing by 2027, and urges the Bank to halt all LNG and fossil gas financing. Recourse also advocates for grant-based and concessional public finance to prevent increasing debt distress and calls for stronger protections for communities affected by energy and extractive projects.

Germany's coffee industry, worth EUR 20 billion annually, faces significant risks as over 98% of its imports originate from countries highly or moderately vulnerable to climate change. Climate-induced supply shocks led to a 43% increase in roasted coffee prices for German consumers in 2025. To counter this, Germany utilizes climate finance through bodies like GIZ and BMZ to fund adaptation projects, such as agroforestry and regenerative techniques, in producing regions. Examples include the Yayu Forest Biosphere Reserve project in Ethiopia and the Coffee++ initiative in Asia and Africa, which aim to stabilize yields and diversify supply sources to reduce dependence on volatile markets like Brazil and Vietnam.

The authors argue that the upcoming UN General Assembly resolution to operationalize the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) Advisory Opinion on climate change is a critical test of global climate leadership. They assert that the resolution reflects existing legal obligations to prevent climate harm, provide reparations, and ensure a just transition from fossil fuels. While noting resistance from major emitters and oil producers who seek to weaken the text, the authors maintain that the resolution complements existing UNFCCC processes by closing an 'accountability gap' that the treaty regime has failed to address.

The report argues that the expanded BRICS bloc is not a coherent actor but a collection of competing interests, where fossil-industrial interests often conflict with climate rhetoric. It categorizes members into five functional actor groups and proposes a five-axis 'Climate and Energy Compass' and a focus on climate finance reform to facilitate a just and sovereign energy transition.

The report argues that African governments must rely on social grants and employment schemes to support populations not absorbed by the economy. It highlights South Africa's expansive but potentially unsustainable grant system and the Expanded Public Works Programme. The text discusses the transition from conditional to universal grants and the use of biometric identification systems, like India's Aadhaar, to reduce corruption. A critical barrier identified is Africa's low tax-to-GDP ratio (16.5%), exacerbated by tax breaks for investors, which limits the funding available for these social protections.

The report argues that public development banks (PDBs)—including national, regional, and multilateral institutions—are uniquely positioned to overcome structural and market barriers to climate risk insurance in EMDEs. It identifies key barriers such as data gaps, underdeveloped local capital bases, and fragmented regulatory frameworks. The document proposes a tiered approach where National Development Banks (NDBs) focus on local market development and project pipelines, Regional Development Banks (RDBs) coordinate risk pooling and shared data infrastructure, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) provide catalytic capital and credit enhancement. Key recommendations include the use of targeted premium subsidies with sunset clauses, the bundling of insurance with loans, and the creation of regulatory sandboxes to foster innovation in parametric insurance.

The report argues that the Article 6.4 Sustainable Development (SD) Tool is primarily procedural and fails to protect Indigenous Peoples and local communities due to an overreliance on national laws, narrow definitions of Indigenous status, and a restrictive approach to Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC). Geospatial analysis reveals that hundreds of projects in the Article 6 pipeline—including both new notifications and transitioning Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects—overlap with or are in close proximity to Indigenous and community lands, particularly in Asia. Documented cases in India, Kenya, Colombia, and Brazil demonstrate that these gaps have already led to involuntary resettlement, inadequate compensation, and long-term land conflicts.