AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

The report argues that African governments must rely on social grants and employment schemes to support populations not absorbed by the economy. It highlights South Africa's expansive but potentially unsustainable grant system and the Expanded Public Works Programme. The text discusses the transition from conditional to universal grants and the use of biometric identification systems, like India's Aadhaar, to reduce corruption. A critical barrier identified is Africa's low tax-to-GDP ratio (16.5%), exacerbated by tax breaks for investors, which limits the funding available for these social protections.

• South Africa has significantly expanded its social grant system, with beneficiaries increasing from four million in 1994 to over 28 million today, though 40% of the population still lives in poverty based on a US$6.85 extreme poverty benchmark.
• The Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) in South Africa has provided over eight million work opportunities since 2004, serving as a short-term bridge to improve employability through skills and experience.
• Digital biometric identification systems, such as India's Aadhaar project which enrolled over 1.4 billion adults, can mitigate corruption in grant distribution by enabling direct transfers to bank accounts.
• African governments face severe funding constraints for social programs due to a low average tax-to-GDP ratio of 16.5%, which is lower than that of Asia and the Pacific (19.1%), Latin America and the Caribbean (21.9%), and OECD countries (33.5%).
• Ethiopia successfully expanded its tax base between 2007 and 2013, with total taxes collected increasing from US$1.3 billion to US$3.8 billion, and the tax contribution to government revenue rising from 48% in 2007 to 82% in 2016.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Chipanda, B. (2026). AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Blessing Chipanda. AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }