AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the role of social grants and large-scale employment schemes in Africa as tools to mitigate poverty and inequality in the face of limited economic absorption of the working-age population.

• African governments are increasingly relying on social grants and large-scale employment schemes to support the poor and the informal sector because the economy cannot absorb large numbers of working-age people. While targeted subsidies were originally common, there is a shift toward universal, non-means-tested grants, as targeted systems often suffer from information asymmetry and inefficient bureaucracies.
• In South Africa, the number of social grant beneficiaries grew from four million in 1994 to over 28 million today, representing nearly a third of the population. Despite this, 40% of South Africans live in poverty based on a US$6.85 extreme poverty benchmark. The system is considered unsustainable in the long term without rapid economic growth, as it is supported by only 7.6 million taxpayers (as of 2023) and consumes funds that could be used for productive investment.
• South Africa's Expanded Public Works Programme (EPWP) has provided over eight million work opportunities since 2004. Such programs are intended to act as a bridge to better employment by providing skills and experience, though they risk creating dependency and 'dead-end jobs' if not linked to training and private sector growth.
• Digital identity systems, such as India's Aadhaar project—which has enrolled 99% of its adult population (over 1.4 billion people)—are used to reduce corruption in grant distribution by linking bank accounts to biometrics. Some African countries are attempting similar digital transformations, but efforts in Kenya, such as the Maisha Namba project, have faced suspicion due to endemic corruption.
• Funding for social grants is constrained by low tax-to-GDP ratios in Africa, which average 16.5%, compared to 19.1% in Asia and the Pacific, 21.9% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 33.5% in OECD countries. This is attributed to tax breaks for donors, special economic zones, and tax holidays for big investors. Potential revenue increases could come from taxing the digital economy, noting that 255 million people in Africa used Facebook in 2022.
• Ethiopia demonstrated the potential for expanding the tax base; between 2007 and 2013, total taxes collected rose from US$1.3 billion to US$3.8 billion. Consequently, the share of total government revenue coming from taxes increased from 48% in 2007 to 82% in 2016.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Chipanda, B. (2026). AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Blessing Chipanda. AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=08-social-grants}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }