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This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.

The report examines the complex interplay of governance, peace, and security in the Horn of Africa, highlighting a shift from interstate to intra-state conflict. It analyzes how structural drivers—including climate change, demographic pressures, and technological advances—interact with political instability and geopolitical competition from global and Middle Eastern powers. The document evaluates the effectiveness of multilateral bodies like IGAD, the AU, and the UN, noting their struggles to maintain relevance amidst hardening state sovereignty and institutional fragility.

This report analyzes the demographic trends and development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—up to 2040, focusing on population growth, fertility rates, the potential for a demographic dividend, and urbanization patterns.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes poverty and income inequality in the Horn of Africa, forecasting trends through 2040. It highlights significant disparities in multidimensional and monetary poverty across the region, the impact of conflict and governance on economic stability, and the role of income inequality in poverty reduction.

This research paper assesses bilateral climate finance provided between 2016 and 2020 to ten developing countries with low governance scores, identifying a heavy skew toward mitigation and a concentration of funding from Japan to Uzbekistan.

This research paper argues that China is leveraging African dissatisfaction with Western paternalism and the current global order to strengthen its relations with African nations during the Ukraine conflict. The author suggests that the war is accelerating a shift toward multipolarity, allowing China to position itself as an alternative partner that respects national autonomy and non-interference, potentially boosting its Global Security Initiative and diplomatic influence across the continent.

This introduction to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the socio-economic and ecological challenges facing the Horn of Africa—comprising Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—and describes the use of the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to forecast development pathways to 2040.

This background report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, political, and geostrategic context of the Horn of Africa. It details the region's prevalence of inter-state and intra-state conflicts, the impact of forced displacement, and the significant influence of foreign military and economic interests from global powers and Gulf states on regional stability and development.

The report concludes that the Horn of Africa's development is severely hindered by chronic instability, poor governance, and a reliance on primary exports. It argues that while the current trajectory is grim—with high poverty rates in Somalia and South Sudan and fragility in Ethiopia—an 'Integrated Development Push' involving climate-smart agriculture, economic diversification, and regional integration could lead to inclusive growth by 2040.

This research paper by the International Institute for Sustainable Development examines the evolution of international land governance, focusing on the transition from top-down desertification efforts to the concept of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN). It details the drivers of land degradation, the role of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the socio-economic barriers—such as land tenure and gender inequality—that hinder restoration efforts.

The September 2021 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines critical stability challenges across Africa, focusing on the appointment of a high representative for the Horn of Africa, the diplomatic rift between Algeria and Morocco, the prevalence of enforced disappearances, security sector reform failures in South Sudan, and Sudan's decision to surrender Omar al-Bashir to the International Criminal Court.

This document provides guidelines for a call for Expressions of Interest (EOI) issued by the Global Resilience Partnership (GRP), in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and GEF’s Challenge Program for Adaptation Innovation. The initiative seeks to identify and scale innovative financial mechanisms that support private sector resilience solutions in Fragile and Conflict-Prone Least Developed Countries.

This case study describes the installation of a 14.4 kWp solar PV off-grid connect system at Orotta Hospital in Eritrea, developed by Phaesun GmbH and funded by the NGO Archemed. The system was designed to provide a reliable power supply for pediatric cardiac surgery and neonatology wards, mitigating the impact of frequent power cuts and unreliable diesel generators. Operational since December 2014, the system integrates solar PV, battery storage, and existing grid/diesel backups to ensure uninterruptible power for critical medical services.

This fact sheet presents findings from a June 2020 survey of 68 insurance sector players across 19 jurisdictions in Eastern and Southern Africa, conducted by FSD Africa, the Organisation of Eastern and Southern Insurers (OESAI), and Cenfri. The document details how COVID-19 accelerated digitalization, negatively impacted operational stability and premium collection, and highlighted gaps in risk coverage for businesses.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) estimates the public funding required by 2030 to end hunger, double the incomes of smallholder farmers, and maintain agricultural greenhouse gas emissions within the limits of the Paris Agreement. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the authors determine that donors must nearly double their current annual contributions to food security, supplemented by increased domestic tax revenue in low- and middle-income countries.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) estimates the public investment required to eradicate hunger, double the incomes of small-scale producers, and maintain agricultural greenhouse gas emissions within Paris Agreement limits by 2030. Using a computable general equilibrium model, the authors determine that donors must increase their annual contributions by 14 billion USD, complemented by 19 billion USD from low- and middle-income countries, to achieve these goals.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) estimates the public spending required to end hunger, double the incomes of small-scale producers, and maintain agricultural greenhouse gas emissions within Paris Agreement limits by 2030. It identifies a significant funding gap, requiring both an increase in official development assistance (ODA) and higher domestic taxation in low- and middle-income countries.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the relationship between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa. It evaluates the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020' initiative, arguing that while the AU has established necessary infrastructure for early warning and preventive diplomacy, poor governance and structural root causes continue to drive conflict and displacement.

The September 2019 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the coordination between the African Union (AU) and the UN Security Council (UNSC), the challenges of the AU's 'Amnesty Month' initiative, and specific political crises in the Central African Republic, Sudan, South Africa, and Cameroon.

The July 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the progress of African Union (AU) institutional reforms, the coordination between the AU and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and specific political transitions in The Gambia and Algeria. It also analyzes the potential for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to stabilize the Horn of Africa and evaluates the 'Silencing the Guns' initiative.