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The report identifies a significant 'take-off' in solar panel imports to Africa, with imports from China rising 60% to 15,032 MW in the 12 months to June 2025. This growth is widespread, with 20 countries setting new import records and 25 countries importing at least 100 MW. The report suggests this surge may be driven by distributed solar, potentially replacing expensive diesel generation and significantly increasing electricity supply in several countries, such as Sierra Leone and Chad.

The paper analyzes the civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), arguing that the conflict has become a proxy war for Middle Eastern powers. It details how external military support from countries like the UAE, Egypt, and Iran sustains the fighting and how a proliferation of uncoordinated, ad hoc mediation initiatives—often led by these same regional actors—has marginalized civilian political actors and hindered a comprehensive peace agreement.

The document analyzes pandemic preparedness in Africa, categorizing nations into scientifically advanced, policy-advanced, and fragile states. It argues that while global actors like the WHO promote standardized frameworks and securitization, these often clash with local needs for long-term health system strengthening. The author highlights a disconnect where funding is directed toward reactionary measures and 'pre-approved studies' rather than sustainable infrastructure, particularly in authoritarian or fragile states.

On 24 February 2025, the UN Security Council and General Assembly passed three resolutions on Ukraine, revealing significant fractures in Western unity and a strategic shift in the Global South's approach. While Europe continues to demand Russian accountability and territorial integrity, the Trump administration has pivoted toward de-escalation and negotiations, leading the US to abstain from or oppose resolutions with harsh condemnatory language. Concurrently, Global South nations, including South Africa, India, and Brazil, are increasingly adopting a pragmatic, non-aligned stance that prioritizes diplomatic mediation and national interests over binary confrontations.

The document analyzes the spillover of conflict-related online risks—such as disinformation, hate speech, and technology-facilitated gender-based violence—into domestic environments. It argues that while the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) and UK's Online Safety Act (OSA) were not primarily designed for conflict settings, their systemic risk assessments and crisis protocols can be leveraged to hold platforms accountable. The brief highlights critical gaps, including the erasure of war crime evidence due to over-moderation and the role of engagement-driven algorithms in amplifying harmful content. It recommends structured cross-border cooperation, the development of evidence-preservation protocols, and a shift toward outcome-based metrics in platform risk reporting.

The Tigray region faces potential instability due to a split between TPLF factions led by Getachew Reda and Debretsion Gebremichael. While this division has opened space for new political discourse, the situation remains fragile, particularly regarding the neutrality of security forces and the continued presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces in some territories. Full implementation of the CoHA, including the return of over a million displaced persons, is deemed essential to prevent further violence.

The report analyzes 450 votes and 5,850 voting decisions by African states at the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) between 2006 and 2022. It finds that the African Group generally opposes or is unwilling to defend civil and political rights, particularly regarding sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) and freedom of expression. The group frequently protects African states from international scrutiny through country-specific resolutions while remaining inconsistent or indifferent toward human rights violations in non-African countries. Despite a general decline in the domestic freedom scores of its members, the group's HRC voting patterns show a slight shift toward a more human rights-friendly direction after 2010, though it remains largely obstructive toward intrusive mandates for African nations.

The report finds that Ethiopia's real comprehensive wealth per capita grew by 103% between 1992/93 and 2019/20, primarily driven by human capital. However, this trend reversed in 2018/19 and 2019/20. While produced and market natural capital grew, financial capital declined into negative territory by 2019/20 due to high foreign debt. Non-market natural capital indicators show declining land area per capita and rising temperatures, signaling growing environmental pressures.

The document explores the potential of superhot rock energy in Africa, highlighting its capacity to provide massive amounts of carbon-free electricity and its potential to drive economic growth and energy access.

The author examines the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and a values-based rhetoric, specifically regarding its engagement with Africa. Historically, Germany's approach has been 'economistic,' focusing on raw material imports and machinery exports. The paper argues that current geopolitical shifts and the need for critical minerals provide an opportunity for Germany to move away from post-colonial models. It suggests that instead of merely securing cheap resources, Germany should support a pan-African industrial policy, the mobilization of domestic resources, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to foster sustainable development and reduce Africa's dependence on raw material exports.

The document examines how the green energy transition in Africa could trigger conflict due to land displacement, environmental damage, and inequitable benefit distribution. It identifies five key categories of legal protections—land and resource rights, environmental and social protections, compensation and benefit sharing, access to information and participation, and access to justice—that can mitigate these risks. While many Sub-Saharan African countries have enacted basic protections, the brief emphasizes that the quality of implementation, institutional capacity, and political will are essential to prevent a 'green resource curse'.

The document examines the role of 'civic humanitarians'—local actors embedded in society through faith, community, or ethnic ties—within Uganda's refugee response. It argues that while Uganda's progressive policies facilitate refugee-led organisations (RLOs), the localisation agenda is hindered by stringent national registration requirements and narrow, techno-managerial definitions of accountability. The authors highlight that refugees rely heavily on sociocultural support practices (such as 'saidu' and 'ubuntu' philosophy) that remain invisible in formal humanitarian debates. To improve localisation, the brief recommends creating separate registration tracks for RLOs, developing flexible funding mechanisms, and broadening the understanding of accountability to include community-driven and relational models.

The author argues that Germany is struggling to balance its 'exportist' economic model and corporate interests with a more recent emphasis on a 'rules-based order' and human rights in its foreign policy. Historically, German engagement in Africa has been characterized by a light footprint and a focus on extracting raw materials, such as oil and minerals. The paper suggests that Germany should move away from this extractivist approach and instead support African-led initiatives for domestic resource mobilisation and regional complementarities, particularly through the AfCFTA, to foster a more just and green transition.

The report analyzes the surge of violence in Ethiopia since 2018, attributing it to identity-related contentions, elite rivalry, institutional fragility, and international dynamics. While the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) ended the Tigray war, the author argues it is insufficient because it excluded key actors like the Amhara Fano and Eritrea. The document recommends utilizing national dialogue and transitional justice to address systemic grievances, provided these processes are inclusive and independent rather than tools for regime consolidation. It calls for deep political reform, including a negotiated vision within the ruling Prosperity Party and the creation of independent non-state oversight.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The report identifies Africa as a net energy exporter, though it forecasts that total energy demand will exceed production by 2039. While a small group of countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola maintain high export values, a significant number of African nations remain heavily dependent on energy imports, a group expected to expand by 2043.

The document analyzes the distinct paths toward statehood for Somaliland and the SADR, contrasting Somaliland's case of secession from Somalia with the SADR's struggle for self-determination against Moroccan occupation. It examines how the African Union's adherence to inviolable colonial borders, despite precedents like Eritrea and South Sudan, complicates these efforts. The authors argue that both territories seek to reclaim colonial-era boundaries rather than alter them, yet they face significant economic and political hurdles due to a lack of formal recognition.

The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.

The Horn of Africa is characterized by a very young population and high fertility rates, particularly in Somalia. Only Djibouti has currently reached the working-age to dependent ratio necessary to potentially realize a demographic dividend. The region is predominantly rural, with Ethiopia being the most rural and Djibouti the most urbanized. High youth populations combined with limited economic opportunities are identified as contributors to socio-political instability.

The report analyzes multidimensional and income-based poverty across the Horn of Africa, noting that while the region is projected to see a decline in average poverty rates to 12% by 2040, it will fail to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for eradicating extreme poverty. It highlights severe disparities, with South Sudan and Somalia facing extreme poverty driven by conflict and weak governance, while Ethiopia has shown significant progress in poverty reduction despite ongoing regional conflict.