Tigray must avert another cycle of war

The Tigray region faces potential instability due to a split between TPLF factions led by Getachew Reda and Debretsion Gebremichael. While this division has opened space for new political discourse, the situation remains fragile, particularly regarding the neutrality of security forces and the continued presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces in some territories. Full implementation of the CoHA, including the return of over a million displaced persons, is deemed essential to prevent further violence.

• The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has split into two competing factions: one led by Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) president Getachew Reda and another led by Party Chair Debretsion Gebremichael. This division has led to the expulsion of 16 senior political figures, including Getachew, following a TPLF Congress in August that the Getachew-led faction considers "null and void."
• The neutrality of Tigray's security forces is critical to preventing violence, as both TPLF factions are seeking their support. Because many members of these forces are young, any leadership failure to maintain neutrality could lead to uncontrollable violence.
• Incomplete implementation of the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) contributes to regional instability. Specifically, over one million people remain displaced in Tigray, with more than 70,000 in Sudan, and Eritrean and Amhara forces continue to occupy some territories.
• The TPLF infighting creates a risk of federal government intervention in Tigray, which the document suggests would be unwelcome by Tigrayans who fought for self-administration and self-determination.

APA

Dessu, M. K., & Yared, T. (2024). Tigray must avert another cycle of war. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war

Chicago

Dessu, Meressa K, and Tegbaru Yared. Tigray must avert another cycle of war. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dessu |first1=Meressa K |last2=Yared |first2=Tegbaru |title=Tigray must avert another cycle of war |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 October 2024 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dessu2024tigray, author = {Dessu, Meressa K and Yared, Tegbaru}, title = {{Tigray must avert another cycle of war}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }