Tigray must avert another cycle of war

A briefing by the Institute for Security Studies warning that factional infighting within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) threatens the stability of Ethiopia’s Tigray region following the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA).

• The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has split into two opposing factions: one led by Getachew Reda, who heads the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), and another led by Party Chair Debretsion Gebremichael. The Getachew-led faction accuses the other of trying to "undermine and fragment the administration," while Debretsion’s faction claims the TIA has compromised "Tigrayan interests."
• The internal TPLF conflict has escalated to the point where the Debretsion-led faction convened a 14th TPLF Congress in August, resulting in the expulsion of 16 senior political figures, including Getachew Reda. However, the Getachew-led faction considers this congress "illegal" and its decisions "null and void."
• The neutrality of Tigray's security forces is critical to preventing a return to violence. While leaders have committed to maintaining peace, both TPLF factions are seeking their support. Because many members of the security forces are young, any move to support one faction could "plunge the region into more violence."
• Failure to fully implement the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) increases the risk of conflict. Key unresolved issues include the presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces in some territories, the continued displacement of over a million people in Tigray, and more than 70,000 refugees in Sudan.
• The TPLF dispute creates a risk of federal government intervention, which the authors suggest Tigrayans would likely resist. Additionally, the presence of Eritrean forces continues to be a flashpoint, with US Special Envoy Mike Hammer warning it could "flame an already tragic situation."

APA

Dessu, M. K., & Yared, T. (2024). Tigray must avert another cycle of war. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war

Chicago

Dessu, Meressa K, and Tegbaru Yared. Tigray must avert another cycle of war. Institute for Security Studies, 2024. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dessu |first1=Meressa K |last2=Yared |first2=Tegbaru |title=Tigray must avert another cycle of war |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=16 October 2024 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dessu2024tigray, author = {Dessu, Meressa K and Yared, Tegbaru}, title = {{Tigray must avert another cycle of war}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tigray-must-avert-another-cycle-of-war}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }