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The document describes Ethiopia as a landlocked, low-income country in the Horn of Africa characterized by diverse topography and a complex ethnic federal system. It details the country's climatic patterns, including three annual rainfall seasons and projected temperature increases by 2030. The text also outlines Ethiopia's historical role in Pan-Africanism and its current political instability, marked by conflicts with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army.

The Tigray region faces potential instability due to a split between TPLF factions led by Getachew Reda and Debretsion Gebremichael. While this division has opened space for new political discourse, the situation remains fragile, particularly regarding the neutrality of security forces and the continued presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces in some territories. Full implementation of the CoHA, including the return of over a million displaced persons, is deemed essential to prevent further violence.

The report analyzes the surge of violence in Ethiopia since 2018, attributing it to identity-related contentions, elite rivalry, institutional fragility, and international dynamics. While the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) ended the Tigray war, the author argues it is insufficient because it excluded key actors like the Amhara Fano and Eritrea. The document recommends utilizing national dialogue and transitional justice to address systemic grievances, provided these processes are inclusive and independent rather than tools for regime consolidation. It calls for deep political reform, including a negotiated vision within the ruling Prosperity Party and the creation of independent non-state oversight.

The report analyses the 'memory wars' in Ethiopia, where political elites use 'invented traditions' and memorialisation to advance competing ideological agendas. It identifies three primary approaches to collective memory: the rejectionist approach, which seeks to deconstruct the 'great tradition' of the Ethiopian state; the revivalist approach, which seeks to restore it; and the moderationist approach, which attempts a selective balance. These approaches operate across four layers of tradition: the pre-1991 great tradition, the post-1991 federal vernacular tradition, regional traditions, and local-level traditions. The author argues that the contradictions between these approaches and the lack of a negotiated, shared collective memory have reinforced political instability and armed conflict.

The report analyzes multidimensional and income-based poverty across the Horn of Africa, noting that while the region is projected to see a decline in average poverty rates to 12% by 2040, it will fail to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for eradicating extreme poverty. It highlights severe disparities, with South Sudan and Somalia facing extreme poverty driven by conflict and weak governance, while Ethiopia has shown significant progress in poverty reduction despite ongoing regional conflict.

Ethiopia is not on track to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger projected to increase due to conflict, pests, economic slowdown, and climate change. The report argues that sustainable food system transformation is possible within a decade if public investment is increased by USD 4.6 billion and targeted toward interventions that provide multiple development outcomes. It highlights a critical funding gap where long-term investments for Sustainable Development Goal 2 are significantly underfunded compared to short-term emergency food assistance, which increases the country's vulnerability to future shocks.

The report identifies a significant financing gap of USD 10 billion per year needed to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. It argues that current funding is overly skewed toward short-term emergency assistance rather than long-term agricultural development. By investing in on-farm productivity, social protection, and climate-resilient infrastructure, the report projects that undernourishment could drop below 3% and the incomes of 29 million small-scale producers could double by 2030, all while meeting nationally determined contribution goals for greenhouse gas emissions.

Ethiopia is not on track to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger projected to remain high due to conflict in Tigray, climate change, and economic shocks. The report argues that a sustainable food system transformation is possible with an additional annual public investment of USD 4.6 billion from 2023 to 2030. This funding would target increasing agricultural productivity, transitioning to healthier diets, and enhancing climate resilience. A significant financing gap exists between short-term emergency food assistance and the long-term investments required for systemic resilience. Key recommendations include prioritizing on-farm interventions, scaling up sustainable livestock intensification to reduce GHG emissions, and integrating nutrition education with social protection programs.

The report argues that Ethiopia's national dialogue initiative is hindered by a fundamental clash between a 'deliberative' approach favored by the government—which seeks a rational consensus to resolve differences—and the reality of a severely divided society characterized by deep-seated historical injustices. The author contends that the process will only succeed if stakeholders shift toward an 'agonistic' model that focuses on transforming antagonistic relations into adversarial politics and reckoning with the past, rather than attempting to manufacture a final consensus on fundamental national issues.

The document analyzes Ethiopia's struggle with democratization, tracing a cycle of autocratic rule from the imperial era to the present. It argues that the state's historical hegemony, combined with the organizational weakness of social forces, creates a resilient autocracy. While peaceful protests can trigger short-lived liberalizations, they often fail to consolidate democracy because the state can swiftly recuperate power. Conversely, armed insurgency further deepens authoritarianism by destroying material foundations for democracy and creating militaristic rebel groups that transplant autocratic traditions into the state upon victory. The author recommends using a national dialogue to create incentive structures for elites to commit to democratic reforms.

The report assesses Ethiopia's progress toward healthy and sustainable food systems, highlighting a projected decrease in extreme poverty and undernourishment by 2030 alongside a significant increase in livestock-driven GHG emissions. It examines the country's vulnerability to drought, the role of climate-smart agriculture in improving dietary diversity, and the influence of Official Development Assistance (ODA), with the United States as the primary donor. The document also details the development of national dietary guidelines and analyzes household consumption patterns, noting that wealthier households have higher dietary diversity and meat consumption.

The paper analyzes the root causes of political violence in Ethiopia, attributing it to an institutional crisis within the EPRDF and a historical 'cult of violence'. It proposes a transition from a 'politics of victimhood' to a 'survivors' political project' inspired by Mahmood Mamdani's theories and the hagiography of Saint Krəstos Śämra. The author suggests that peace-building requires a multi-track political dialogue, a sovereign apology from the state for historical violence, and the transformation of enemies into political adversaries to build a multicultural state.

The 2018 peace agreement and subsequent trilateral alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have resolved historical conflicts but introduced new instabilities. The alliance has exacerbated internal tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia, specifically fueling the conflict in Tigray and tensions in Jubaland. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of this bloc has created distrust among other regional actors like Kenya and Djibouti and threatens to undermine the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by duplicating its integration efforts.

The research paper assesses the political landscape of Ethiopia, characterized by a divide between 'Ethiopianist' and 'ethnonationalist' perspectives. It analyzes theoretical models of constitutional design—specifically consociationalism, centripetalism, and integrationism—and proposes several hybrid models to reconcile these opposing views. The author argues that no single design can satisfy all parties and suggests that a combination of power-sharing, vote-pooling, and national identity-building is the most viable path toward stability.

The report outlines the safeguards framework for the Resilient Landscapes and Livelihoods Project in Ethiopia, categorising it as Category B. It details the disclosure of the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), Resettlement Policy Framework, and Social Assessment, and specifies the project's implementation across 210 Woredas in six Ethiopian regions.

The document argues that while COVID-19 initially calmed political rivalries by redirecting focus toward the health crisis, it may in the medium term exacerbate instability. The author highlights risks of unorganised riots driven by economic desperation and a potential regime-opposition standoff over how the country should be governed after the state of emergency ends and the ruling party's term expires. It suggests that stability depends on the capacity of political actors to negotiate a constitutionally mandated governance framework and the government's willingness to involve non-state actors in pandemic management.

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.

The report attributes the rise in Ethiopia's ethnic violence, particularly since 2018, to a self-reinforcing cycle of contending ethno-nationalisms and institutional fragility. It argues that the centralized ethno-federal system created paradoxes of empowerment and disempowerment, while the ruling party (EPRDF) became fractured along ethnic lines. The author identifies 'security dilemmas'—where groups arm themselves for protection, thereby increasing the insecurity of others—as a micro-level driver of conflict. The report recommends internal party negotiations, a broad national dialogue to reconstitute the state, professionalization of security forces, and urgent job creation for youth to address economic grievances.

The report examines Ethiopia's shift toward the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF), which aims to move from camp-based assistance to socio-economic integration. Key initiatives include providing work permits, expanding the Out of Camp Policy, and creating jobs in industrial parks. However, the report identifies significant hurdles, including low national wages, ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella, and insufficient consultation with host communities.

The report examines Ethiopia's high vulnerability to climate change, particularly for pastoralists and smallholder farmers. It analyzes national strategies like the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) and the Programme of Adaptation on Climate Change (EPACC), noting that while political will is strong, adaptation efforts are heavily skewed toward agriculture and disaster risk management, leaving gaps in health, energy, and transportation. It also details the role of international funding and the lack of robust national knowledge-sharing networks.