Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa

The 2018 peace agreement and subsequent trilateral alliance between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia have resolved historical conflicts but introduced new instabilities. The alliance has exacerbated internal tensions in Ethiopia and Somalia, specifically fueling the conflict in Tigray and tensions in Jubaland. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of this bloc has created distrust among other regional actors like Kenya and Djibouti and threatens to undermine the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by duplicating its integration efforts.

• The 2018 peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia and their subsequent alliance with Somalia has resolved historical obstacles to peace, but these gains are offset by heightened tensions in some countries and disrupted inter-state relations.
• The alliance has intensified internal political conflicts in Ethiopia, contributing to the November 2020 war in the Tigray region. This was driven by the TPLF's disagreement over the return of Badme to Eritrea and the perception that the alliance was a tool to eliminate the TPLF.
• In Somalia, the alliance has emboldened the federal government to interfere in the affairs of member states, specifically Jubaland, leading to economic and travel restrictions and military confrontations in the Gedo region.
• The exclusive nature of the trilateral alliance has fostered mistrust among other Horn of Africa nations, particularly Djibouti and Kenya, by ignoring their interests and creating divergent foreign policy approaches.
• The alliance threatens the regional integration efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) by creating a parallel, duplicate mechanism with similar objectives, which divides resources and focus.
• Implementation of the Eritrea-Ethiopia peace deal has been delayed due to a lack of political consensus and the legacy of mistrust, evidenced by the brief four-month opening of border posts before they were closed again.

APA

Sharamo, R. D., & Demissie, S. T. (2021). Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear40.pdf

Chicago

Sharamo, Roba D, and Selam Tadesse Demissie. Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear40.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sharamo |first1=Roba D |last2=Demissie |first2=Selam Tadesse |title=Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear40.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sharamo2021reconfiguring, author = {Sharamo, Roba D and Demissie, Selam Tadesse}, title = {{Reconfiguring alliances in the Horn of Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear40.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }