Building comprehensive peace in Ethiopia

The report analyzes the surge of violence in Ethiopia since 2018, attributing it to identity-related contentions, elite rivalry, institutional fragility, and international dynamics. While the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) ended the Tigray war, the author argues it is insufficient because it excluded key actors like the Amhara Fano and Eritrea. The document recommends utilizing national dialogue and transitional justice to address systemic grievances, provided these processes are inclusive and independent rather than tools for regime consolidation. It calls for deep political reform, including a negotiated vision within the ruling Prosperity Party and the creation of independent non-state oversight.

• Conflict and violence in Ethiopia have surged since 2018, with a different nature and intensity than previous conflicts. A study cited indicates that 57% of all conflicts between 2000 and 2022 occurred after 2018, with 21% happening in 2021 alone, primarily affecting the Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara regions.
• The surge in violence is driven by four interrelated factors: identity-based political polarisation, competition among elites for power and economic resources, the fragility of state and party institutions, and the internationalisation of domestic conflict through foreign involvement and arms smuggling.
• The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) signed in November 2022 is viewed as a positive start but is limited by its 'elite negotiation' nature. It lacks buy-in from critical participants in the conflict, specifically Eritrea and Amhara-associated armed groups, and excluded civil society and vulnerable groups.
• The implementation of the CoHA is threatened by shifting political alliances and new conflicts, such as the clash between the federal government and the Amhara Fano over the disarmament of informal armed groups and the disbandment of regional special forces.
• National dialogue is identified as a vital but contested political process. Its success depends on including marginalised groups, addressing power imbalances, and ensuring it is not treated as an 'apolitical technical process' used to consolidate the current regime's power.
• Transitional justice is presented as a tool to address systemic human rights violations, but its effectiveness is hindered by weak or corrupt state institutions and the difficulty of balancing the demands for retribution versus reconciliation.
• Sustainable peace requires fundamental political reform, including the establishment of a consensus-based political culture and a negotiated collective vision within the ruling Prosperity Party to resolve incongruent visions among its members.

APA

Ashenafi, D. (2023). Building comprehensive peace in Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-50.pdf

Chicago

Ashenafi, Dalaya. Building comprehensive peace in Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-50.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ashenafi |first1=Dalaya |title=Building comprehensive peace in Ethiopia |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-50.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ashenafi2023building, author = {Ashenafi, Dalaya}, title = {{Building comprehensive peace in Ethiopia}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-50.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }