Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The Horn of Africa is characterized by a very young population and high fertility rates, particularly in Somalia. Only Djibouti has currently reached the working-age to dependent ratio necessary to potentially realize a demographic dividend. The region is predominantly rural, with Ethiopia being the most rural and Djibouti the most urbanized. High youth populations combined with limited economic opportunities are identified as contributors to socio-political instability.

• The Horn of Africa's population is projected to reach 241.3 million by 2030, with Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan expected to grow by 33.4 million, 3.8 million, and 13.5 million people respectively over the next 10 years.
• Somalia has the second highest total fertility rate in the world at 6.1 children per woman, while Djibouti has the lowest in the region at 2.8.
• Only Djibouti has achieved the critical ratio of at least 1.7 working-age people (15-65) for each dependent (under 15) required to potentially experience a demographic dividend, recording a ratio of 1.9. Other countries in the region are not projected to reach this ratio until after 2040, with Somalia not expected to reach it until 2070.
• The region is the most rural in Africa, with an average of only 27% of the population living in urban areas. Ethiopia is the most rural, while Djibouti is the most urbanized, with approximately 80% of its population living in cities.
• A 'youth bulge'—where 40% of the adult population is between 15 and 29 years old—increases the risk of socio-political instability if job prospects and governance participation are limited.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }