Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

This report analyzes the demographic trends and development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—up to 2040, focusing on population growth, fertility rates, the potential for a demographic dividend, and urbanization patterns.

• The Horn of Africa's population was approximately 190 million in 2020, with Ethiopia accounting for nearly two-thirds (60%) of the region's total. Ethiopia's population of 115 million is larger than the other five countries in the region combined. By 2030, the regional population is expected to reach 241.3 million, driven by increases of 33.4 million in Ethiopia, 13.5 million in Sudan, and 3.8 million in Somalia.
• The region is characterized by an exceptionally young population, with median ages ranging from 16 in Somalia to 19 in Ethiopia and Sudan. Somalia has the second highest total fertility rate in the world at 6.1 children per woman, while Djibouti has the lowest in the region at 2.8. In Eritrea and Ethiopia, the average woman has four children, and South Sudan recorded a rate of 4.8.
• Most countries in the region are constrained by a youthful age structure that hinders economic growth because there are too few working-age people (15-65) relative to child dependants. A 'demographic dividend' typically requires a ratio of at least 1.7 working-age people per dependant; only Djibouti has achieved this, with a ratio of 1.9. Ethiopia and Eritrea are projected to reach this threshold after 2040, while Sudan and South Sudan are expected to reach it in the 2050s, and Somalia not until 2070.
• The Horn of Africa is the most rural African region, with an average urbanization rate of only 27%. Only three cities in the region have at least one million inhabitants: Addis Ababa, Khartoum, and Mogadishu. Djibouti is the exception, being the most urbanized with approximately 80% of its population in cities. South Sudan is the second most rural state in the region after Ethiopia, with fewer than 20% of its population living in urban areas.
• A 'youth bulge'—where 40% of the adult population is aged 15 to 29—increases the risk of socio-political instability if job prospects, education, and governance participation are limited. The report suggests that the region's youthful structure and limited socio-economic opportunities contribute to current social instability.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=04-demographics}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }