Preventing a “Green Curse” in Africa: Mitigating Conflict Risks in Renewable Energy and Mining Projects and Sectors

This policy brief examines the risk of a "green resource curse" in Africa, where the transition to renewable energy and the extraction of critical minerals could trigger conflict if poorly managed. Based on a study of 48 Sub-Saharan countries, the authors identify five categories of legal protections—land and resource rights, environmental and social protections, compensation and benefit sharing, access to information and participation, and access to justice—that are essential for mitigating these risks. While many countries have adopted basic protections, the brief emphasizes that legal frameworks alone are insufficient without institutional capacity, political will, and effective enforcement.

• The transition to green energy in Africa carries a risk of triggering conflict, including riots, strikes, and civil or interstate conflict, due to the nature of large-scale projects. These projects often involve intensive land use that can displace people from agriculture and herding, reduce water access via hydropower projects, and create local grievances through environmental pollution or corruption.
• The Environmental Law Institute identified five critical categories of legal protections to prevent and resolve conflicts over land and minerals: Land and Resource Rights; Environmental and Social Protections; Compensation and Benefit Sharing; Access to Information and Participation; and Access to Justice.
• A survey of 48 Sub-Saharan countries revealed that 12 specific protections are nearly universal, including surface rights recognition, permit requirements for mining and renewable energy facilities, Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), worker protections, and standing to dispute land dispossession. Conversely, requirements for free prior informed consent (FPIC) and standing to enforce benefit sharing are rare.
• There is significant variation in the strength and number of legal protections across the region. Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania are the highest performing countries, each with over 32 of the 40 indicators. Somalia, Comoros, and Mauritius are among the lowest performing, with fewer than 15 protections.
• Legal provisions are insufficient on their own to prevent conflict; their effectiveness depends on institutional capacity, political will, and the role of non-governmental actors such as NGOs and civil society in ensuring community rights are recognized.
• To strengthen protections, the brief recommends formalizing customary tenure through registration to provide evidence of ownership, implementing computerized Access to Information Acts, ensuring public involvement throughout the entire life of the EIA process, and utilizing community development agreements for benefit sharing.

APA

Dupuy, K., Bruch, C., & Stein, T. (2024). Preventing a “Green Curse” in Africa: Mitigating Conflict Risks in Renewable Energy and Mining Projects and Sectors. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/db9b2df8-75af-4194-a859-57a5c117685c/PRIO Policy Brief 03-2024.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Dupuy, Kendra, Carl Bruch, and Tracy Stein. Preventing a “Green Curse” in Africa: Mitigating Conflict Risks in Renewable Energy and Mining Projects and Sectors. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2024. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/db9b2df8-75af-4194-a859-57a5c117685c/PRIO Policy Brief 03-2024.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{dupuy2024preventing, author = {Dupuy, Kendra and Bruch, Carl and Stein, Tracy}, title = {{Preventing a “Green Curse” in Africa: Mitigating Conflict Risks in Renewable Energy and Mining Projects and Sectors}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/db9b2df8-75af-4194-a859-57a5c117685c/PRIO Policy Brief 03-2024.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }